408
FXUS61 KGYX 112315
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
715 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE MID- ATLANTIC WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. EARLY WEEK WILL ALSO SEE BUILDING WINDS, SEAS, AND
SURF ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
700 PM UPDATE:
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT FARTHER NORTH.
MINIMAL CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
JUST BLENDED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST
WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT TONIGHT HERE IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHICH WILL MEAN DRY WEATHER. IT SHOULDN'T GET AS COLD
TONIGHT AS IT HAS BEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS SO FROST SHOULD BE
PRETTY SCARCE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT COASTAL
STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE GUIDANCE IS
SOMEWHAT BIMODAL ON THIS. THINKING THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN
UP ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT FOR SOME STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG, BUT
DID NOT HIT IT TOO HARD IN THE FORECAST, AT LEAST FOR THE TIME
BEING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
SUNDAY BEGINS DRY, BUT LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO
MOISTEN THROUGH THE DAY. DEEPER MOISTURE, CERTAINTY OF RAIN,
WILL TAKE TIME TO PUSH INTO THE REGION DUE TO THE STEADY
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WHILE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION
TAKES PLACE ALOFT, COLUMN SATURATION WILL BE UNEVEN. THIS
RESULTS IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SLOWLY INCREASING SOUTH TO
NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
SHOULD BRING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. WINDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME
GUSTY AT TIMES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COASTAL LOW APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC SHOULD HELP KEEP THE STORM
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HELP WEAKEN THE LOW. AS A RESULT,
RAIN AND WINDS ON MONDAY ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE IMPACTFUL OVER
LAND. HOWEVER, HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
30-40MPH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LIKELY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. IT
COULD BE BREEZY ALONG THE COAST BUT THESE WINDS PROBABLY WON'T
POSE MANY IMPACTS OTHER THAN PERHAPS BLOWING AWAY LIGHT ITEMS
SUCH AS AN EMPTY GARBAGE BIN. THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOULD
MAKE IT FEEL PRETTY GLOOMY AND CHILLY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S MONDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
UNSETTLED, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT BECOME
MUCH MORE ISOLATED BY THE END OF THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE
MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE EARLY WEEK
WARMUP IS INTERRUPTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
BRINGS SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE NORTHEAST. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL, WITH MANY PLACES UP NORTH
STRUGGLING TO EVEN GET TO 50F. ISOLATED SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT
COULD FEATURE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED, WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER
60S FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT FOR TERMINALS ALONG THE NH AND ME COAST. THIS MAY
ALSO RESULT IN LIFR VIS DUE TO FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW. RESTRICTIONS IMPROVE, BUT IFR TO
MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN NH
TERMINALS INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM...
LOWERED RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, INTERMITTENT LOWERED RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT POP UP.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
GALE WATCH FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN ZONES ARE IN EFFECT STARTING SUNDAY
NIGHT. SCA ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM...
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS A
COASTAL LOW BRINGS UP TO NORTHEASTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS. SEAS OF 9-12 FEET ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN
WATERS, WITH 4-7FT SEAS EXPECTED IN CASCO AND PENOBSCOT BAYS.
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SLACKEN MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY TUESDAY, THOUGH SCA WINDS AND SEAS OF UP TO 10FT
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS GO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT RETURN TO SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ON
THURSDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THERE WILL BE A LONG EASTERLY FETCH FOR A FEW DAYS LATE THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON THEIR
WAY DOWN, BUT COMBINED WITH INCREASED WAVE ACTION, SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE CENTERED AROUND MONDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ150-151-153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ152-
154.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ152-154.
NEAR TERM...HARGROVE/EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...PALMER
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