801
FXUS61 KGYX 120735
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
335 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, GUSTY WINDS, AND HIGH SURF THROUGH EARLY
WEEK. THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BE PUSHED EAST BY A COLD FRONT
MIDWEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE LATE WEEK, PARTICULARLY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* EASTERLY FETCH WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN THE HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TODAY, CONTINUING WITH HIGHER WAVES OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO ATLANTIC CANADA TODAY, BUT
WILL HOLD STEADY AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. COMBINED FLOW BETWEEN THESE PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BRING A STRONG EASTERLY COMPONENT, AND THIS WILL DICTATE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
INITIALLY, THIS EASTERLY AIR IS DRY, AND IT WILL STAVE OFF
CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION FROM THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. UNEVEN
SATURATION THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AS THE DAY GOES ON, MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN NH AND THE
COASTAL WATERS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS
TODAY, A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* BUILDING WAVES WILL CREATE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS HIGH, WITH THE ADDED
IMPACT OF LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION. VIEW WAVE ACTION FROM A
DISTANCE, NOT ON ROCK OUTCROPS OR LAND EXPOSED TO CRASHING
WAVES.
* WIND GUSTS INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH ENE GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND SOME INTERIOR
HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTH WILL BE GREATEST TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SLOWLY OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN NH INTO SOUTHERN
ME THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR NORTH
THE STEADIER RAIN PUSHES, AS HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WILL STILL
BE OPPOSING WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.
BY THE TIME MONDAY DAYLIGHT ARRIVES, LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL BE A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO NH AND SOUTHERN ME. CAN EXPECT
ADDITIONAL STEADY RAIN TO OCCUR, WITH A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF NH SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
THERE ARE A FEW SOLUTIONS THAT ALLOW BETTER MIXING IN THE LOW
LEVELS. THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER GUSTS AT TIMES, MOST
FREQUENT ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE STARTING TO WIND DOWN
A LITTLE BIT, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ON THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, IT STILL
APPEARS THAT SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND PORTIONS OF COASTAL
MAINE WILL SEE THE HIGHEST TOTALS. HERE, NBM PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN AND
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR AT LEAST 2 INCHES. NBM SPREAD FOR 48
HOUR TOTALS HAS NARROWED A LITTLE BIT BUT REMAINS LARGE, WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT OUR AREA IS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THE SYSTEM. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE STARTING TO RELAX
OVERNIGHT BUT WE COULD STILL SEE SOME 20 TO 25 KNOT SUSTAINED
VALUES OUT OVER THE WATERS WITH SOME 30 TO 35 KNOT GUSTS. THUS,
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS MAY HANG THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES BUT NOTHING MAJOR. RIDGING WILL THEN START TO
APPROACH BY THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES, WE WILL SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MOST ON
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH, TO THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH. AS THE RIDGING
APPROACHES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY CONSOLIDATE IN SOUTHERN NH WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING
AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN NH
TERMINALS TODAY, WITH SCT IFR. SHRA SLOWLY PUSHES NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH RA MORE STEADY INTO MONDAY.
CEILING RESTRICTIONS OF MVFR/IFR ARE MOST LIKELY SOUTH AND ALONG PWM
TO IZG TO LEB THROUGH MONDAY.
LONG TERM...RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
ALONG THE COAST, AS A COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO BRING WIDESPREAD
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WAVE HEIGHTS BUILD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS EASTERLY
FLOW INTENSIFIES. 1 TO 2 FT WAVES THIS MORNING WILL BECOME 7 TO
10 FT BY MON MORNING. THIS IS DRIVEN BY INCREASING WINDS TODAY
WITH GALES IN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ME
COAST AND NH SEACOAST TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE OFF THE COAST OF THE COASTS OF VINALHAVEN/ISLE AU HAUT,
BUT OF LESS FREQUENCY THAN FURTHER SOUTH.
LONG TERM...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE
ONGOING MONDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY LASTING UNTIL MID TO LATE
WEEK. GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL BE ONGOING MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. GALE-FORCE WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS COULD HANG ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
STEADY EASTERLY WINDS WILL BUILD WATER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY WEEK, COINCIDING WITH HIGH SURF AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
AROUND 10 TO 10.5 FT (AT CASM1). THE RESULT MAY BE HIGH TIDES
NEARING MINOR FLOOD STAGE AS WELL AS SPLASHOVER SURROUNDING THE
HIGH TIDE TIME.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR MEZ023>027.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MEZ023>027.
NH...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR NHZ014.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-151-153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ152-154.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ152-154.
NEAR TERM...CORNWELL
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...HARGROVE
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