704
FXUS61 KGYX 122357
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
757 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, GUSTY WINDS, AND HIGH SURF THROUGH EARLY
WEEK. THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BE PUSHED EAST BY A COLD FRONT
MIDWEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE LATE WEEK, PARTICULARLY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
EVENING UPDATE:
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA, SPECIFICALLY
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. FOR THIS UPDATE, TWEAKED PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR AND
GUIDANCE TRENDS. OTHERWISE, JUST BLENDED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS FORECAST:
OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES, THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH
CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER THAN PROGGED. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR
TONIGHT FOR MOST ZONES EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTH. OTHERWISE, GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE, GUSTING AROUND 30 KT AT TIMES AT
THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* BUILDING WAVES WILL CREATE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY. RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS HIGH, WITH THE ADDED IMPACT
OF LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION. VIEW WAVE ACTION FROM A DISTANCE,
NOT ON ROCK OUTCROPS OR LAND EXPOSED TO CRASHING WAVES.
* WIND GUSTS INCREASE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH ENE GUSTS 25-35
MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FOR MONDAY AS THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATION PRECIPITATION RUNS INTO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH. HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN
NH. THERE WILL EVENTUALLY BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THAT LINE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL BE MORE SOUTH THAN FORECAST. THEREFORE, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
POPS WILL NEED TO BE FURTHER REDUCED IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES. OTHERWISE, EASTERLY WINDS WILL WILL REMAIN GUSTY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH CONDITIONS ON THE DRIER SIDE EXPECTED. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER WEATHER AND SOME
UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ELSEWHERE. THURSDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THIS WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
INTO THE WEEKEND. A WETTER, MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...A MID-ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN MAINE. AUG, RKD, AND HIE
ALL HAVE THE POTENTIAL REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORIES UNLESS A PASSING
SHOWER MOVES OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM...LOWERED RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING,
THOUGH CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. VFR IS
LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WAVE HEIGHTS BUILD TONIGHT AS EASTERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OFF THE
COAST OF THE COASTS OF VINALHAVEN/ISLE AU HAUT, BUT OF LESS
FREQUENCY THAN FURTHER SOUTH. SEAS OFF OF NH AND SOUTHERN ME
WILL REACH HAZARDOUS HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 FEET MONDAY.
LONG TERM...SCA-CRITERIA NORTHEASTERLIES AND 6-10FT SEAS
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SLACKENING WINDS EXPECTED. SEAS
LOWER TO 4-7FT BY THE END OF THE DAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TO SCA LEVELS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND
MAY STAY AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. 4-6FT SEAS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
STEADY EASTERLY WINDS WILL BUILD WATER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY WEEK, COINCIDING WITH HIGH SURF AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
AROUND 10 TO 10.5 FT (AT CASM1). THE RESULT MAY SPLASHOVER
SURROUNDING THE HIGH TIDE TIME.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MEZ023>027.
NH...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-151-153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ152-
154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ152-154.
NEAR TERM...HARGROVE/EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...PALMER
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