652
FXUS61 KGYX 281426
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1026 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRIER NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING BY THURSDAY AND COULD CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. A BAND OF RAIN IS FORECAST MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND BRING MEANINGFUL RAINFALL.
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
1000 AM UPDATE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. FOG WAS
REPORTED ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING, SO SOME PATCHY
FOG WAS ADDED TO THE NOWCAST. FOG IS EXPECTED TO SHOW UP IN THE
SAME PLACES TOMORROW MORNING, THOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
STRONGER. BECAUSE OF THIS, PATCHY FREEZING FOG WAS ADDED TO THE
FORECAST SINCE LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
PREVIOUSLY...
THE CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION
TODAY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS SHOULD MEAN MORE SUN THAT
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS ALONG WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE FORECAST FOR OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
*WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL REMAINS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
*GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 30-35 MPH.
*UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOL CONDITIONS LOOK TO FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS:
LATEST GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE BASED FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED H5 TROF AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE PASSING TO OUR WEST OVER QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OR COASTAL
WATERS WITHIN A FAVORABLE JET REGION FOR ASCENT, WHICH WILL AIDE IN
PROVIDING A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A WIDESPREAD
1-2" RAINFALL WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HIGHER END AMOUNTS.
RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY UNLESS GREATER THAN 4" OF RAINFALL IS
ACHIEVED ACROSS THE HEADWATERS BUT SOME LOCALIZED MINOR NUISANCE
TYPE OF FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT SHOULD CONVECTIVE RAINFALL
RATES BE ACHIEVED. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TIMING TRENDS AS WE GET
CLOSER FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WITHIN A BROAD WARM SECTOR.
SHOULD THIS OCCUR, IT WOULD PROBABLY JUST BE MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY
DURING THE EARLY EVENING WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 35 MPH OR SO. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL, MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ADDITIONAL WEAK SYSTEMS MAY KEEP THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT NO ADDITIONAL MAJOR
SYSTEMS CURRENTLY LOOK LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
SEASONABLE AVERAGES.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD RA. EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
SOME IMPROVEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
RA BECOMES MORE SHOWERY AND WINDS BECOME WESTERLY. SATURDAY
WILL LIKELY FEATURE CONTINUED LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS (ESPECIALLY
AT KHIE) DUE TO SCATTERED SHRA. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
KTS ARE POSSIBLE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND DECREASING WINDS ARE
THEN LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...LOW-END SCA WIND GUSTS (AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS) WILL
CONTINUE ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS WILL BUILD DURING THIS PERIOD TO 6-10 FT WITH 2-5 FT IN THE
BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
NEAR TERM...EKSTER/PALMER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER/PALMER
LONG TERM...TUBBS
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