183
FXUS61 KGYX 282332
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
732 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND CROSSES THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO NEXT WEEK FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
730 PM UPDATE... STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS OCCURING AT THIS
HOUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE SKIES REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR. READINGS ARE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
SO ADJUSTED NEAR-TERM TRENDS AND LOWERED FORECAST LOWS SOME.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK.
PREVIOUSLY...
A TRANQUIL AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH IS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NEW ENGLAND,
WITH A GENTLE NORTHERLY BREEZE. A LOW OFFSHORE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR PREVAILING WINDS TO SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLIES, BUT SIMILAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE
FOG COULD FREEZE ONTO SURFACES AS WELL, WITH SOME PATCHY BLACK
ICE POSSIBLE ON LESS TRAVELED ROADWAYS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER-30S ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOUTHERN NH,
WITH UPPER-20S POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD AND ANOTHER
FAIR WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED. DESPITE A COASTAL LOW JUST EAST OF
THE GULF OF MAINE, SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
MID-50S. THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW WILL DRIFT AWAY
TOMORROW NIGHT AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID- LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER
THE MID- SOUTH APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
OVERVIEW: A REX BLOCK OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL BREAK DOWN
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY MORNING
THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THERE COULD BE PERIOD OF
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ENSEMBLES FAVOR TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PROMOTE COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER.
IMPACTS:
*ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHILE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE BELOW FLOODING THRESHOLDS AND WINDS LIKELY STAY
BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
*WINTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SNOW SHOWERS, STRONG WINDS, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING.
FORECAST DETAILS: CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM SW TO NE
THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE
WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. ENSEMBLES
RANGE FROM A LOW TRACK ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO QUEBEC
TO A LOW TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE WITH THE MEAN FAVORING
A TRACK NEAR OVERHEAD OR ALONG THE COAST. THE PRIMARY RESULTING
DIFFERENCE IS THAT A MORE INTERIOR TRACK WOULD ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE EPS IS THE FARTHEST WEST SOLUTION, WHICH
BRINGS PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH AROUND 50 PERCENT
ALONG THE COAST WHILE THE GEFS AND CMC ENS HAVE PROBABILITIES
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH.
THE LATEST NBM HAS PEAK SOUTHEAST TO EAST GUSTS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 30 MPH, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME RANGE.
THE SPREAD IN LOW TRACKS ALSO RESULTS IN A NOTICBLE DIFFERENCES IN
QPF. THE FARTHER WEST TRACKS FAVOR DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION WITH A POTENTIAL MOISTURE TAP INTO WELL OFFSHORE
MELISSA. THESE WETTER SOLUTIONS BRING UPWARDS OF 3.5 INCHES OF
RAIN BY FRIDAY EVENING, WHILE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WOULD NEED TO BE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4
INCHES TO PRODUCE RIVER OR FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. THE LATEST NBM
BRINGS 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS
THAT WILL RESULT IN A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. IF DEEPER MOISTURE IS
ABLE TO NOSE INTO THE AREA THERE LIKELY WOULD BE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WHICH COULD PRODUCE POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES WITH
LEAF LITTER BLOCKING STORM DRAINS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
WHILE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS GOING
IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE PGF WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY WITH PEAK
GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH. COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION KEEPING
HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE
COMBINATION OF COLDER AIR AND STRONG WINDS WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS
COULD BRING WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ABOVE TREELINE. THE GRADIENT
SLACKENS SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO LESSEN WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL TROUGHS CROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG TONIGHT AT LEB, HIE.
OTHERWISE, VFR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
THOUGH SOME SHOWERS NEAR PSM TOMORROW MAY LOWER CIGS TO A LOW
VFR THERE.
LONG TERM...CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER THURSDAY WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF AT LEAST IFR ACROSS ALL TAF
SITS. A SOUTHEAST LLJ AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO BRING A
PERIOD OF LLWS THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN LOW CIGS AT KHIE WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SEAS OF 4-7FT ARE EXPECTED AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
OF 20- 28KTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS RAMP UP THURSDAY AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SCAS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BY MID DAY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE EXITS FRIDAY TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH STRONG WEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO GALE FORCE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
SOME STORM FORCE WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND DROP BELOW GALE FORCE SATURDAY NIGHT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
NEAR TERM...TUBBS
SHORT TERM...PALMER
LONG TERM...SCHROETER
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