744
FXUS61 KGYX 290542
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
142 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL
WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK
FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
A FAIR WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. ANY EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH
NORTHERLY WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE, FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY
CLOUDS FURTHER INCREASE WITH CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
*WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
*GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 35-40 MPH.
*UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOL CONDITIONS LOOK TO FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS:
LATEST GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE BASED FORECAST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF AN
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROF AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE PASSING TO OUR WEST OVER
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OR COASTAL WATERS WITHIN A FAVORABLE JET
REGION FOR ASCENT, WHICH WILL AIDE IN PROVIDING A WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A WIDESPREAD 1-2" RAINFALL WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HIGHER END AMOUNTS. RIVER FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LOW ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS BUT SOME
LOCALIZED MINOR NUISANCE TYPE OF FLOODING/PONDING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, ESPECIALLY WHERE LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS. WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH TIMING TRENDS AS WE GET CLOSER FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES BUT
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A DRY SLOT MOVES IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
DAY WITHIN A BROAD WARM SECTOR. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, THERE COULD BE
JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE
EVENING WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 40 MPH OR SO. GIVEN THAT THE TREES ARE NOW MOSTLY BARE,
THESE WINDS LIKELY WILL NOT BE TOO IMPACTFUL. SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL, MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TROFING LOOKS TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES BRINGING BOUTS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TODAY, TONIGHT, AND INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARRIVE DURING THURS
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD RA. EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SOME
IMPROVEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS RA
BECOMES MORE SHOWERY AND WINDS BECOME WESTERLY. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
FEATURE CONTINUED LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS (ESPECIALLY AT KHIE) DUE TO
SCATTERED SHRA. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND DECREASING WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TODAY WITH
SEAS CONTINUING TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY.
LONG TERM...EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS. SEAS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WILL BUILD DURING THIS PERIOD TO 6-12 FT
WITH 3-6 FT IN THE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
NEAR TERM...EKSTER/TUBBS
SHORT TERM...EKSTER/TUBBS
LONG TERM...EKSTER/SCHROETER
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