436
FXUS61 KGYX 291800
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
200 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO
NEXT WEEK FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE TRACKS ENE TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH INTO COASTAL MAINE. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ADVANCE NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL BRING LOWS INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH ENSEMBLES AND
SOME DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING A SECONDARY LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING SW TO NE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COOL AND RAW AS EASTERLY WINDS
RAMP UP WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN OCCLUSION FORMS BETWEEN THE INTERIOR LOW
AND THE SECONDARY LOW NEAR THE COAST. AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT WITH QPF STILL A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES BY FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG ESE LOW LEVEL JET OF 50+ KTS AT 2000 FEET
WILL ALSO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN INVERSION
BENEATH THIS LLJ WILL INHIBIT FULL MIXING, BUT STILL SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND MUCH
HIGHER WIND GUSTS ABOVE 2000 FEET. PWATS WILL APPROACH 1.25
INCHES AND THOSE WILL AID IN RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING 0.5
INCHES PER HOUR. HOWEVER, THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND
FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIMIT HYDRO CONCERNS OTHER
THAN SOME POOR DRAINAGE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BY FRIDAY MORNING, LOW PRESSURE SWINGS TO THE NORTH WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
RAIN STARTS TO BREAK APART FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A DRIER END OF THE DAY LIKELY FOR THE SEACOAST AND POSSIBLY
EVEN PORTLAND. CLOUDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND A PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
ALLOWING FOR FOR A TRANQUIL BUT GUSTY SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
PEAK IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS, WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT
WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 35MPH COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS
SLOWLY DIE DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH 20-25MPH
GUSTS STILL LIKELY BY SATURDAY EVENING.
IN LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, SHOWERY WEATHER LIKELY
CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BY THEN, BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THE DAMP,
RAINY CONDITIONS UP THERE. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN, BUT MOSTLY RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY DWINDLES DOWN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
AS WESTERLY WINDS SLACKEN. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY UP NORTH AS WELL
WITH 30MPH GUSTS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
70MPH ABOVE 3500 FEET. SATURDAY COULD BE A VERY DANGEROUS DAY TO
TREK IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS, AS WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO REMAIN
BELOW 0F.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM NEW
ENGLAND. A BRIEF BOUT OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY DRY COUPLE DAYS WITH MUCH CALMER
WINDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES
NEXT TUESDAY, AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE IS BOUND TO PROVIDE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY AN
MVFR CLOUD DECK ADVANCING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING. MVFR LIKELY PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THURSDAY
EVENING BEFORE CIGS LOWER AND RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERING CIGS AND RAIN WILL LIKELY BRING
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG ESE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT OF WINDSHEAR BETWEEN 03Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM...LOWERED RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT OUT OF NEW ENGLAND.
CONDITIONS LIKELY IMPROVE BY MID-DAY SATURDAY ACROSS MOST SITES,
BUT RESTRICTIONS COULD STAY DOWN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND AT HIE. WIND GUSTS OF 25-35MPH ARE LIKELY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. VFR RETURNS TO MOST PLACES BY
SUNDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...NE WINDS RELAX TONIGHT WHILE ELEVATED SEAS WILL
CONTINUE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW THURSDAY EVENING
WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. EASTERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL BRING SCA CONDITIONS TO ALL WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
LONG TERM...GALE FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND 8-11FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLIES ON SATURDAY, WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 5-9FT BY THE END OF THE DAY. WINDS AND SEAS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, WITH SCA
CONDITIONS ENDING BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE COMING FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ150>152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ151-153.
NEAR TERM...SCHROETER
SHORT TERM...SCHROETER
LONG TERM...PALMER
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