585
FXUS61 KGYX 300719
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
319 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF
NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS DURING
PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING, AND IN ITS WAKE SATURDAY. TROUGHING
LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK FOR AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERCOME MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY, SLOWLY LOWERING FURTHER INTO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE THIS
OVERSPREAD, AND IT WILL HELP MANY LOCATION WARM UP SLOWER THAN
WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, AND WILL
SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SWING ACROSS AT LEAST NH THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED IN THE LOW LEVELS,
BUT NOT NECESSARILY DOWN TO THE SURFACE, THINK ANY MORE
SUSTAINABLE RAINFALL HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN NH
AND UP ALONG THE ME COAST. THESE STAND TO INCREASE FURTHER IN
EXPOSED LOCATIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
* GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MOST CONSISTENT ALONG THE COAST, WITH
INTERIOR LOCATIONS SEEING A PEAK EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY.
* MODERATE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE FOCUSED LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST, WITH ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL
ALONG THE COAST AND THE SOUTHERN FACING SLOPES.
MID/LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BRING GOOD DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT A LATE OCTOBER
WIND/RAIN STORM. THERE WILL BE TWO PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS: ONE
FRIDAY MORNING OUT OF THE EAST, ANOTHER SATURDAY FROM THE WEST
(DETAILS BELOW). THE FIRST IS MORE UNCERTAIN ON LONGEVITY OF
GUSTS AS WELL AS MAGNITUDE, BUT THERE IS A GENERAL WINDOW
BETWEEN 2AM AND 10AM WHERE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH CAN'T BE
RULED OUT. THIS WILL BE AS THE LLJ IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA, SO INTERIOR LOCATIONS MAY SEE THESE PEAK WINDS FOR JUST A
BRIEF AMOUNT OF TIME, WHILE THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN CONTINUES MUCH OF THE NIGHT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN LEE OF THE WHITES, WITH LOCATIONS LIKE
WHITEFIELD, NH RECEIVING ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH DURING
THIS LLJ TRANSIT TONIGHT.
RAINFALL HAS TRENDED DOWN SOMEWHAT FROM EARLIER FORECASTS,
MAINLY WITH A QUICKER TRANSIT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A MORE
RAPID INTRODUCTION OF DRY AIR TO TAPER SUSTAINED RATES. JET
DYNAMICS STILL SUPPORT AMPLE LIFT FOR MODERATE RAINFALL RATES
DURING ITS PEAK FROM MIDNIGHT TO AROUND 8AM. HREF MEMBERS CREATE
MAXIMUMS AROUND WHERE COASTAL FRONTS TYPICALLY SET UP (ALONG AND
JUST INLAND FROM THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE), AND IN THE SOUTHERLY
MTN FACES.
FRIDAY MORNING, STEADY RAIN LIFTS INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN ME,
PROVIDING A BREAK FOR MUCH OF NH AND SOUTHERN ME WITH SOME
REMAINING SHOWERS AND LESS BREEZY CONDITIONS. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THE WIND SHIFT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WESTERLIES QUICKLY CREATE
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD
SOME SHOWERS INTO THE INTERIOR.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
*SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.
*GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 35-40 MPH LIKELY.
*SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH BOUTS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS OR NEAR NEW ENGLAND.
DETAILS:
STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT,
RESULTING IN DECREASING SHOWER COVERAGE SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN ALOFT, ALLOWING RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND THE MOUNTAINS THEMSELVES. SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS
AS WELL. A RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED TO OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL
RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35-40
MPH LIKELY.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S
AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S/50S
AND LOWS MOSTLY INTO THE 20S. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN LIKELY TO
REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS NEAR OR OVER NEW ENGLAND.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS MORNING, SLOWLY
LOWERING TOWARDS MVFR FROM SOUTHERN NH AND THE ME COAST
NORTH/INLAND. LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY, BEFORE MORE STEADY RA
OVERTAKES THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LIFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MODERATE RA RATES PASSES NORTHWARD. SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN A LULL FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY WILL PROMOTE UPSLOPE SHOWERS FOR MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS INTO THE EVENING. FOR WINDS, INCREASING EAST WINDS
THROUGH SECOND HALF OF TODAY, LLWS, 30 TO 40KTS, EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR MOST TERMINALS, WITH SOME SFC GUSTS
AROUND 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. HIE MAY ALSO SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
30-35 KT TONIGHT DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
LONG TERM...GRADUAL FLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS SHRA BECOMES MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AS DRYING
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE CONTINUED
LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS (ESPECIALLY AT KHIE)THOUGH DUE TO
SCATTERED SHRA. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND DECREASING WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL
PASS SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS NEAR/AROUND
GALE FORCE AND MODERATE RAINFALL. WINDS SUBSIDE AND SHIFT WEST
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING AGAIN INTO THE
EVENING.
LONG TERM...WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS. SEAS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WILL BUILD DURING THIS PERIOD TO 6-12 FT
WITH 3-6 FT IN THE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ150>152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR ANZ151.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ153.
NEAR TERM...CORNWELL
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...TUBBS
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