195
FXUS61 KGYX 302338
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
738 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING GENERALLY COOL AND AT TIMES UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
745 PM UPDATE... THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
THIS UPDATE MOSTLY FOCUSING ON DECREASING WINDS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHERE SO FAR, A SFC INVERSION IS KEEPING THINGS
RELATIVELY CALM. THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN IS NOW MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN NH AND THIS RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE INCREASING WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TONIGHT.
PREVIOUSLY...
A DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A POTENT SHORT WAVE COUPLED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL SPREAD STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 8
AM FRIDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TIME AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AMOUNTS STILL FORECAST IN THE 1
TO 2 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ON SOUTHEAST FACING MOUNTAIN
SLOPES. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND
1.25 INCHES WILL BRING POTENTIAL MAX RAINFALL RATES AROUND 0.5
INCHES PER HOUR WHILE OVERALL RAIN IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS.
AS THE AXIS OF RAIN OF RAIN CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT, SO WILL A
FORMIDABLE ESE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS LLJ WILL APPROACH 60 KTS WITHIN A
2000 TO 4000 FT AGL LAYER. THE HRRR HAS BEEN STEADFAST OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS THAT SOME SHORT DURATION GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BENEATH THE CORE OF THE LLJ AS IT TRANSLATES WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM. THESE GUSTS HAVE
SOME SUPPORT FROM OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS WHILE BUFKIT PROFILES DO
SUGGEST THAT A MODEST INVERSION SHOULD INHIBIT MIXING. I HAVE
INCORPORATED THE HRRR INTO THE WIND GUST FORECAST TONIGHT WHILE THE
SHORT DURATION AND SPORADIC SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE STRONGEST
GUSTS FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE KEY MESSAGE IS THAT
WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT TO DOWN TREE BRANCHES PRODUCING A
LIMITED POWER OUTAGE THREAT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY FRIDAY WITH
STEADY RAIN ENDING FROM SW TO NE FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
WRAPPING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH COLDER
AIR ALLOWING FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA IT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN LEADING TO A STRONG PGF AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND
35 MPH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHEST
SUMMITS IN THE WHITES. GUSTY WINDS WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
OVERVIEW...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS
WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
A SERIES OF TROUGHS PROGRESSES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING A COOL AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.
DETAILS...
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN, MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE UPSLOPE WESTERLY WIND DIRECTION BRINGS SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY, WHICH THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE WINDS EASE
AND THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT MORE. TEMPS REMAIN SEASONABLY
COOL FOR THE WEEKEND, RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S FOR HIGHS ACROSS
THE NORTH, WITH MID 50S LIKELY CONFINED TO COASTLINE.
A SERIES OF TROUGHS PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET STREAM NEXT WEEK. THE MOST LIKELY PASSAGE FOR EACH OF THE
FEATURES LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT, THURSDAY, AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. EACH ONE BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA,
WITH A BRIEF WARM UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOT OF AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WOULD BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEHIND EACH FRONT.
WITH EACH PASSING FRONT THE AIRMASS BEHIND IT LOOKS TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. OVERALL HIGHS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. RAINFALL FROM EACH
PASSING FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN LIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THIS EVENING
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IFR
TO LIFR UNTIL AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING WHEN RAIN ENDS SW TO NE.
A STRONG ESE LLJ WILL BRING PERIOD OF LLWS OF 40 TO 50 KTS FOR
MOST TAF SITES WITH SOME SURFACE GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY MORNING AS RAIN
ENDS CIGS SCATTER. KHIE LIKELY STAYS AT LEAST MVFR FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE REMAINING TAF SITES SEE PREVAILING
VFR. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WEST WINDS OF
25-30KTS ARE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS ON SATURDAY. PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY AT HIE WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND
DIRECTION ON SATURDAY, TUESDAY, AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AROUND THE TIMES OF A COUPLE
OF COLD FRONTS PASSING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN
AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CROSSING THE WATERS. HEAVIER
BOUTS OF RAIN MAY BE ABLE TO DRAG STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE PRODUCING GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AND HAVE CONVERTED THE
GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE RAMPING UP OUT OF THE SW TO W FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GALES
LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...WESTERLY GALES CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. CONDITIONS EASE FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
THE WEST. SCA CONDITIONS OR MARGINAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
NEAR TERM...TUBBS
SHORT TERM...SCHROETER
LONG TERM...CLAIR
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