037
FXUS61 KGYX 311750
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
150 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BRINGING GENERALLY COOL AND AT TIMES
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. THIS KEEPS A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND
ONGOING MUCH OF THE NIGHT, WITH WINDS LIKELY TO BE THE STRONGEST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FROUDE NUMBERS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE GREENS ACROSS
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE, WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH
AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE, BUT LOOK MORE LIKELY DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. COOLER AIR RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE NORTH,
TO THE LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY LESSEN IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH A CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, AND
THEN GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH HIGHS WARMING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE CLOUD COVER,
HIGHS GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW 40S.
WINDS BECOME MUCH LIGHTER TOMORROW NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT CONTINUE
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE
COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE, LOWS DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF
THE INTERIOR, WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE COAST LINE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WE START OFF THE LONG TERM UNDER NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
HOWEVER, WE WILL SEE SOME UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.
ON MONDAY WE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY BUT
MAYBE JUST A TOUCH WARMER WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 50S POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE, THE INTERIOR OF MAINE,
AND ALONG THE COAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD
CHANCES OF RAIN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO MIX IN OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AT THIS TIME, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DO
NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
PROGRESSIVE. FOR NOW, THE NBM SUGGESTS ONLY A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF TOTALS GREATER THAN A HALF INCH OF LIQUID, BUT ANY
MOISTURE IS BENEFICIAL AT THIS POINT.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY
WITH BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS, BUT WEDNESDAY SHOULD MAINLY
BE DRY WITH MORE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING MOVING THROUGH. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN SIMILAR BOTH DAYS, MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S (WITH THE USUAL CAVEAT OF A LITTLE WARMER SOUTH/ALONG
THE COAST AND COOLER OVER THE MOUNTAINS).
THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING OUR NEXT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY. NBM PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST 24-HOUR CHANCES OF GREATER THAN A HALF INCH OF LIQUID
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AS WELL, BUT THERE
HAS BEEN A TREND SOUTH IN SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THUS, THERE
MAY BE A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTEM THAN THE
EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. EITHER WAY, IMPACTS CONTINUE TO LOOK MINIMAL.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER, MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S RANGE.
AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 25-30KT CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING, EASE A BIT OVERNIGHT, AND CONTINUE TOMORROW
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TERMINALS, EXCEPT HIE
AND LEB THAT LIKELY HOLD ONTO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH AT LEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KTS. SOME RESTRICTIONS
ARE THEN POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY DUE TO LOWER
CEILINGS AND SCATTERED -SHRA. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS
RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WESTERLY GALES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS
FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BE BELOW SCA
CRITERIA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THEN LOOK
TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
NEAR TERM...CLAIR
SHORT TERM...CLAIR
LONG TERM...HARGROVE
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