850
FXUS61 KGYX 020626
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
126 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TODAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS WIND. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BRINGING GENERALLY COOL AND AT TIMES
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
COOL TODAY, BUT LESS WINDY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BROUGHT BY
PASSING HIGH PRESSURE WILL FEEL NICE AFTER THE BREEZY START TO
NOVEMBER.
STEADY AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
WIDESPREAD LOW 50S, WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 FOR POINTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS. STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING OVERNIGHT
INTO DAYBREAK, BUT IT WILL BE HARD TO COMPLETELY REMOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
FALL PATTERN WILL KEEP THE AREA BUSY WITH WAVES PASSING THROUGH
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH SHORT LIVED RIDGING WEAKENING, NEXT
DISTURBANCE WITH PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE MONDAY.
FIRST, SUNDAY NIGHT PRESENTS A GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ONLY
DOWNSIDE WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA, THUS NOT IDEA CONDITIONS. EVEN STILL, WENT A LITTLE LOWER
THAT NBM GUIDANCE GIVEN THESE ADDITIONAL FACTORS. TEMPS MAY
BOTTOM IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 VERY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, WITH MID TO LOW 20S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
VALLEYS.
GOOD GUIDANCE PRESENTATION INTO MONDAY WITH THE SUITE OF
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER. TEMPERATURES
WARM NICELY AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL
BE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT THEN
ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH WEAK LOW PRES EXITING THE MID- ATLANTIC
COAST. PHASE TIMING IS LATE FOR OUR AREA TO BENEFIT W/ GREATER
QPF AS THE TROUGH REMAINS NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE UNTIL REACHING THE
GULF OF MAINE.
WHILE THE PASSAGE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION,
BIGGER TOPIC MAY BE THE RETURN TO BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY. NBM
IQR SPREAD IS STILL 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, LIKELY
OWING TO TIMING AND MIXING DISCREPANCIES. WON'T STRAY FAR FROM
THE MEAN AT PRESENT TIME, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST. LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH MAY BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE PASSING COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
EARLY MORNING LONG TERM UPDATE...THE 01Z NBM HAS BEEN INCORPORATED
INTO THE GOING FORECAST AND YIELDS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THEREAFTER, FAIR BUT QUITE WINDY TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THU BUT THERE
ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF AMPLITUDE AND THEREFORE THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE.
PREVIOUSLY...
KEY MESSAGE: AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BRING
MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
FORECAST DETAILS: WE START OFF THE LONG TERM IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY DURING THE DAY WITH NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S. THAT BEING SAID, WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK A LITTLE
BIT. THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES MONDAY EVENING ALONG WITH COLD
FRONT, INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES (50 TO 80 PERCENT)
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD, THE
BEST CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER, EVEN
HERE, NBM PROBABILITIES ONLY MAX OUT IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE FOR GREATER THAN A HALF INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. SOME
SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
TROUGH MOVES OUT QUICKLY TO THE EAST BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, IN THE MID 30S TO
THE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE 50S OVER THE
FOOTHILLS DOWN TO THE COAST. WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHEN WE COULD SEE
SOME SUSTAINED VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS TO 35
MPH.
WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY AS LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE REGION QUICKLY. HIGHS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT MAYBE JUST A TOUCH WARMER. THE NEXT
TROUGH/FRONT THEN APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO MORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE IS CURRENTLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
GUIDANCE THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, BUT THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN. EITHER WAY, TOTAL AMOUNTS ALSO LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER
THAN A HALF INCH OF LIQUID. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
OUT BY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT LINGERING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. FINALLY, ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT DETAILS
REGARDING SCOPE AND TIMING REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN PROXIMITY OF THE WHITE
MTNS AND NORTHERN NH. NOT AS BREEZY TODAY WITH NO ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SE WINDS PICK UP INTO MON,
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 30 KT SFC WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY APPROACH WEDENSDAY
NIGHT WITH SIMILARLY LOWER CEILINGS AND SHOWERS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SLACKEN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO PASS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
NEXT IMPACTFUL WEATHER FOR THE WATERS WILL BE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES MONDAY. AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WINDS
INITIALLY, WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE MON EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO
INCREASING WIND GUSTS AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN SCA CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES, BRINGING SCA
WINDS AND SEAS BACK FOR THURSDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
NEAR TERM...CORNWELL
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...EKSTER/HARGROVE
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