625
FXUS61 KGYX 021759
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1259 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEK, BRINGING
GENERALLY COOL, WINDY, AND AT TIMES UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL,
ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LOW TO
MID 20S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR
30 EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTLINE. FOR MANY SPOTS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE, TONIGHT WILL BE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE
SEASON.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
TOMORROW FEATURES A MODEST WARM UP ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE DAY STARTS OFF SUNNY, BUT
CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN TOWNS, WITH MID
TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ALONG THE MAINE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THESE WILL MOSTLY STAY OFFSHORE, OR MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THESE.
A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARRIVES INTO WESTERN AREAS
AROUND SUNSET.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS TOMORROW
NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA.
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/4IN OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, BUT SOME
AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDER AIR BEGINS MOVING BACK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHER PEAKS ABOVE 3000FT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* AN ACTIVE BUT LOW IMPACT PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH VARIOUS CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
* GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH GALES POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
FORECAST DETAILS:
WE SHOULD STILL SEE SOME ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW (SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS). OUR
REGION WILL BE NESTLED IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC, AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
THUS, WE WILL HAVE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SOME MODEST
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO
BE FAIRLY STRONG. GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 40 KNOTS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SO WE WILL SEE
SOME GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY, GALES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH,
TO THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH. SOME HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING APPROACHES.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY DURING THE DAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY,
BUT MAYBE JUST A TOUCH WARMER IN THE MOUNTAINS. A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE/FRONT THEN APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WHICH
WILL LEAD TO OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RELATIVELY
WEAK WAVE, AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT. THE LATEST NBM RUN
SUGGESTS LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF LIQUID TOTALS GREATER THAN OR
EQUAL TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND GENERALLY LOW CHANCES FOR ANY
TOTALS GREATER THAN A HALF INCH OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY MAY LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER
WINDY DAY AND MORE POTENTIAL GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER, MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S BUT WE WILL
LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MORE PROGRESSIVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY, GIVING
US ANOTHER BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THEN, LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. WHILE THERE'S STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THIS LATE WEEK/WEEKEND SYSTEM, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME. THUS CONTINUES OUR LOW
IMPACT ACTIVE PATTERN. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DECENT WARMUP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT NBM SPREAD INCREASES MARKEDLY STARTING ON
FRIDAY, LIKELY DUE TO THE LOW PREDICTABILITY NATURE OF THESE
PROGRESSIVE FEATURES AND THEIR TIMING.
AS A FINAL NOTE, ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES PEAK MID TO LATE WEEK SO
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...NEAR MVFR CEILINGS AT LEB AND HIE DISSIPATE BY
THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.
CEILINGS QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS CONTINUING WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW AT LEB AND HIE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED THE REST OF TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 30 KNOT WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MAY APPROACH WEDENSDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
SIMILARLY LOWER CEILINGS AND SHOWERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS SCA CONDITIONS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH WESTERLY GALES POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ONGOING ON TUESDAY
WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS AND WINDS
SHOULD RELAX A BIT ON WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA
CONDITIONS AND/OR GALES IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
NEAR TERM...CLAIR
SHORT TERM...CLAIR
LONG TERM...HARGROVE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page