536
FXUS61 KGYX 110535
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
TODAY WILL FEATURE GUSTY WEST WINDS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS, SOME MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY THIS
EVENING. A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS MOST DAYS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH
OF THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER
UPSTATE NY. THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH CONTINUED CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ALONG WITH
DECREASING STABILITY. MODELED FROUDE NUMBERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND SHOULD AID IN
MULTIPLE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE
PRESENT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS TO ALSO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS EVEN DOWN TO THE COASTAL PLAIN
(TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THERE BUT VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SNOW), ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
PORTLAND. THIS COULD ACTUALLY CAUSE SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE AND WILL BEAR WATCH.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CLEARING ON INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE CASE TUESDAY
EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF MAINE.
HOWEVER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
WIND GUSTS DURING THE EVENING HOURS MAY REACH 35 MPH OR SO BASED
ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS BUT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FAIR AND BREEZY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
BALANCE OF TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
LONG TERM UPDATE: JUST SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THURSDAY, WHICH
WILL STILL FEATURE CYCLONIC FLOW. WILL LIKELY SEE AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ROTATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT WILL EXTEND SHOWER
REACH FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE COAST...AT LEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN ME. NBM POPS A LITTLE OVERBOARD OVER THE WATERS AND
COAST EARLY, BUT THINK OCEAN SHOWERS WILL BE REALISTIC ONCE
LAPSE RATES INCREASE W/ WAVE PASSING IN THE EVENING. STEADY NW
FLOW WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES ME CONFIDENT IN STEADY SNOW
OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE US/CAN BORDER BEFORE AND
AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES. BUMPED UP QPF A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS HERE.
DAYTIME SNOW ACCUMS LIKELY ELEVATION DEPENDENT.
PATTERN OVERVIEW: BROAD TROUGHING OVERHEAD MID-WEEK TRANSITIONS
TO AN UPPER LOW THAT GETS BLOCKED OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE
BY AN ATLANTIC RIDGE IN THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. SEVERAL WAVES
ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER LOW AND THROUGH OUR AREA, BUT A LACK
OF FORCING AT THE SURFACE MAY LEAD TO NO MORE THAN LIGHT SHOWERS
AT TIMES. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
BLOCKING RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND.
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
DETAILS: THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THURSDAY
AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO
A RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEGINNING TO BLOCK UP THE
PATTERN. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH GFS FROUDE
NUMBERS SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW FLAKES TO MAKE IT INTO THE FOOTHILLS
AND MAYBE EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID- TO UPPER 40S AND A DEEP WARM LAYER EVIDENT ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS, MEAN THESE PROBABLY MELT AND END UP AS SPRINKLES. LOW
TO MID-40S AND A SHALLOWER WARM LAYER IN THE FOOTHILLS MAKE
THAT THE BETTER LOCATION TO SEE SOME FLAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE NORTH LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID-TO UPPER 30S. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT END UP IN THE 20S AREAWIDE. AN UPPER
LOW FORMS FRIDAY OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE AS THE THE
PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKED. THIS LEAVES US IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW HELPING TO SUSTAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND FROUDE NUMBERS SUGGEST THEY WILL
STAY THERE. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS A COOLING TREND
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-40S SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE LOW TO MID-30S TO THE NORTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID-20S AREAWIDE FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SATURDAY ALLOWING
THE UPPER LOW TO BEGIN ITS DEPARTURE AND GET THE PATTERN MOVING
AGAIN. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY START TO TAPER OFF AS THE
TROUGH FINALLY DEPARTS AND BY SUNDAY MODELS START TO SUGGEST
SOME RIDGING MOVING IN. HOW LONG THIS RIDGING LASTS IS THE
CURRENT STICKING POINT HERE AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD, BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT IN SOME SORT OF A SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK SO WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE TRENDS.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR MUCH
OF TODAY. HOWEVER, SOME SNOW SHOWERS ANDS SQUALLS MAY AFFECT
CIGS AND VSBYS FOR A TIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS MAY
GUST AROUND 30 KT LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIDESPREAD MVFR LOOKS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
LONG TERM...CEILING RESTRICTIONS OF MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, MOST
LIKELY ALONG AND NW OF THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS
EVENING. SHSNRA ALSO MAY LEAD TO VIS RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES AT
HIE AND WESTERN ME MTNS. THESE SHOWERS EXPAND EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE COAST, LIKELY RA. BREEZY NW FLOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AROUND 20 KTS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED STARTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON, GOING THROUGH TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE OR TWO WILL
KEEP WINDS W/NW THROUGH SATURDAY. GALE CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A SHORT PERIOD OR FEW GUSTS TO GALE
FRI NIGHT/SAT. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SEE WAVE HEIGHTS HIGHEST
OF THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY, GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 1 TO 2 FT FOR
THE BAYS/HARBORS. WOULD EXPECT WIND WAVE TO BE DOMINANT
CONTRIBUTOR. INSTABILITY OVER THE WATERS LATE WEEK MAY PROMOTE
SHOWER GENERATION JUST OFFSHORE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ150-152>154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ151.
NEAR TERM...EKSTER/LEGRO
SHORT TERM...EKSTER/LEGRO
LONG TERM...BARON/CORNWELL
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