210
FXUS61 KGYX 120530
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1230 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS MOST DAYS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES
SUNDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A LARGE GYRE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN
CANADA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL AID IN SENDING ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES, MAINLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND
40 AT MANY LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S AS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES.
TROUGHING WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS SO ANY EARLY FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN IF IT PRECIPITATES AT ALL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
EVENING UPDATE...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MOST ORGANIZED SYSTEM OF THE NEXT WEEK
STILL LOOKS POISED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM BRINGING PRECIP ON SUNDAY, BUT HOW MUCH
AND IN WHAT FORM REMAIN IN QUESTION. SNOW, A WINTRY MIX, AND
RAIN ARE ALL LIKELY TO IMPACT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, BUT WHERE
THESE TRANSITION AREAS END UP WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE STORM
TRACK, WHICH IS STILL IN QUESTION. MORE CLARITY IS LIKELY ON
THESE FACTORS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
SEASONABLY COLD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT,
WITH THE PATTERN LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
FULL DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THIS UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE AREA, WITH MOST OF THE SNOW REMAINING CONFINED TO AREAS
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE SMALL,
WITH A COATING OF SNOW EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LIKELY ELSEWHERE BY FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY RANGE BETWEEN MID-30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO UPPER 40S IN THE SEACOAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, REMAINING
OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY DRY
AND CLEAR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY FOR MOST. CLOUDS
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.
ON SUNDAY MORNING, A MORE ROBUST LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
CANADA. THE LOW COULD BRING ALMOST ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR SNOW IN THE NORTH, WITH MORE
WINTRY MIX AND RAIN LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
YORK COUNTY. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH, WITH ENSEMBLES
SHOWING A BROAD RANGE OF STORM TRACK SOLUTIONS THAT COULD ALTER
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT OUTCOMES SIGNIFICANTLY. RIGHT NOW,
GENERALLY A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS
PLAUSIBLE, WITH INTERIOR ME AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS POSSIBLY SEEING A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW AS WELL.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE MENTIONED LOW, UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL MEAN MVFR CIGS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AN
OCCASIONAL BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LESS FREQUENTLY AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM...LOWERED RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE AT HIE AND LEB
AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY THURSDAY EVENING OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS. VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY,
AND EXPECTED EVERYWHERE SATURDAY. LOWERED RESTRICTIONS RETURN
SUNDAY MORNING AS WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS THE REGION.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WIND GUSTS REMAIN ABOVE 25KTS LAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SEAS.
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOME MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY CROSSES THE WATERS ON SUNDAY, WITH SOME ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS POSSIBLE, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
NEAR TERM...EKSTER/HARGROVE
SHORT TERM...BARON/EKSTER
LONG TERM...CLAIR/PALMER
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