253
FXUS61 KGYX 122329
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
629 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS MOST DAYS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES
SUNDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SPRINKLES FLURRIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
PREVIOUSLY...
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST, BRINGING THEM
TO AN END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE WATERS
AND ISLANDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVES PUSHES OFFSHORE, BUT
A MOSTLY DRY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS IS
THE EXPECTATION. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, VISIBLE SATELLITE IS
SHOWING CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP DOWNSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS
LEADING TOWARD MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY REST OF THE DAY AS WELL.
SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT IN THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT AS BROAD TROUGHING TURNS FLOW ALOFT BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST. BLOCKED FLOW SHOULD KEEP AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MOUNTAINS DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE
AREA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED
A TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR EAST. THIS WILL PUT US IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
COLUMN, INCREASING FORCING FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LEADING TO
GOOD ACCUMULATIONS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CAMS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING PRECIPITATION DOWN INTO THE KENNEBEC VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT FROUDE NUMBERS ARE LESS THAN 0.5 SUGGESTING FLOW
IS BLOCKED. I HAVE NO PROBLEM LEAVING A CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN
THE FORECAST DUE TO TO THE INCREASED FORCING, BUT I ANTICIPATE
THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING IT WITH THE EXPECTED DEEP MOISTURE AND
THIS IS MORE LIKELY JUST GOING TO BE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE, A
MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
LIMIT HIGHS IN THE NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
MOISTURE WILL BE TRENDING DOWN AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
MOVING EAST. THIS WILL SLOW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS, BUT THEY
LIKELY CONTINUE IN SOME CAPACITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. FLOW REMAINS
BLOCKED SO THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO START THE DAY FRIDAY. A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
FOR A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH THE DAY. INSTABILITY AND
UPSLOPE FLOW ON FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING A MOSTLY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO RANGE FROM THE MID-30S IN THE NORTH, TO MID-40S ALONG THE
SEACOAST. SATURDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
IN THE AREA.
CLOUDS INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE LOW ARRIVES IN NEW ENGLAND BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH MANY DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES
LOOKING POSSIBLE.
SNOW DOES APPEAR TO BE THE MORE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST, WITH MORE SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN
CHANCES HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS BECAUSE AS THE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD, IT WILL OVERRUN SOME COLDER AIR ACROSS NH AND
MAINE. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
COULD OCCUR OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, WHICH COULD PREVENT THE WARM
LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TO PENETRATE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
THE LOW SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY, WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FOR MOST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEASURABLE SNOW
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND INTERIOR MAINE, AND A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED, WITH A GRADUAL
WARMUP THROUGH THE WEEK. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BEHIND SUNDAY'S SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WE HAVE A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR, BUT CEILINGS ARE BREAKING UP DOWNSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND MOST TERMINAL SHOULD END UP VFR THIS EVENING. LEB AND HIE GO
BACK TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN
PREVALENT IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALL TERMINALS TREND BACK TOWARD MVFR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY, THOUGH RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT HIE FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS. VFR
CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY. A LOW MOVES
THROUGH, BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION, SNOW AND RAIN, AND WILL
ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. RESTRICTIONS
MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH AND COASTAL AREAS DUE TO A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN.
HOWEVER, LOWERED RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS ARE DROPPING BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SEAS FOLLOWING TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CRITERIA IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. WESTERLY WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS STAY MOSTLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OPEN WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLIES BY SUNDAY MORNING, GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE DAY AND SHIFTING TO WESTERLIES IN THE EVENING. SEAS
OF 2-4FT EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
INCREASE TO 5-8FT BY MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BARON/EKSTER
SHORT TERM...BARON
LONG TERM...PALMER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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