069
FXUS61 KGYX 130510
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1210 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD. A BETTER DAY IS FORESEEN
FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST. A
FAIR WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. YET
MORE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT SHOULD
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH. LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF DOWNEAST ME
WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AS THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRIES TO LOWER PRESSURES CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF SHOWERS THU
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR MIDCOAST AND CENTRAL ME. IF A
FEW HEAVIER BURSTS OF PRECIPITATION OCCUR, IT COULD ALLOW TO A
BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW THERE. OTHERWISE, FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHERN
ME AND SOUTHERN NH MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A FEW FLURRIES CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, WITH OCCASIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY WANING IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE,
VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO START THE DAY FRIDAY. A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
FOR A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH THE DAY. INSTABILITY AND
UPSLOPE FLOW ON FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING A MOSTLY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO RANGE FROM THE MID-30S IN THE NORTH, TO MID-40S ALONG THE
SEACOAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
EVENING UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM AS THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON
SUNDAY'S SYSTEM. OVERALL THE EVENING MODEL RUNS HINTED AT A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM, FAVORING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LOWER QPF
SCENARIO. THIS WOULD ALSO FAVOR A PASSIVE CAD SET UP AS
PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR IN THE GULF OF MAINE. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
WATCH TO SEE IF THIS TREND HOLDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS,
AND ALLOW IT TO COME INTO THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE'S WINDOW. SHOULD
THE TRENDS CONTINUE, TEMPS WILL NEED TO COME DOWN FOR SUNDAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, AND GENERALLY MORE LIGHT FROZEN PRECIP
WOULD BE EXPECTED.
A COOL PATTERN THEN CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
FULL DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE LOW ARRIVES IN NEW ENGLAND BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH MANY DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES
LOOKING POSSIBLE.
SNOW DOES APPEAR TO BE THE MORE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST, WITH MORE SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN
CHANCES HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS BECAUSE AS THE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD, IT WILL OVERRUN SOME COLDER AIR ACROSS NH AND
MAINE. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
COULD OCCUR OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, WHICH COULD PREVENT THE WARM
LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TO PENETRATE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
THE LOW SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY, WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FOR MOST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEASURABLE SNOW
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND INTERIOR MAINE, AND A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED, WITH A GRADUAL
WARMUP THROUGH THE WEEK. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BEHIND SUNDAY'S SYSTEM.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR SOUTHERN ME AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NH DURING THE DAY TODAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
LIKELY IN SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY RKD AND
AUG. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
A LOW MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION, SNOW AND
RAIN, AND WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. RESTRICTIONS
MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH AND COASTAL AREAS DUE TO A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN.
HOWEVER, LOWERED RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MVFR TO VFR RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CRITERIA IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
WESTERLY WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. FAIR CONDITIONS
RETURN SATURDAY. SCA TO NORTHERLY GALES ARE THEN POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...BARON/EKSTER
LONG TERM...CLAIR/PALMER
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