389
FXUS61 KGYX 132300
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
600 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS
NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDES LIFT AND INSTABILITY. THIS UPSLOPE
PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE AGAIN TOMORROW, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM CANADA ON SUNDAY,
WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR NH AND
MAINE. BEHIND THE STORM, BREEZY WINDS AND UPSLOPE SNOW IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
6 PM UPDATE...JUST LIKE THE LAST FEW EVENINGS, CLOUDS ARE THE
MAIN THEME WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LATE CLEARING IS EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUSLY...
THE MOST RECENT RADAR LOOP CURRENTLY SHOWS LIGHT REFLECTIVITY
RETURNS ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOWING PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN NH AND INTERIOR MAINE REPORTING LIGHT SNOW. SOME
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS HAVE ALSO REPORTED LIGHT RAIN
TODAY AS WELL. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH MORE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW, THOUGH MOST VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A COATING.
AS THE SUN SETS, UPSLOPE SHOULD DIMINISH. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR OVERCAST SKIES TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE A LITTLE CHILLIER THAN LAST
NIGHT'S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S MOST PLACES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE UPSLOPE PATTERN EXPERIENCED TODAY WILL LIKELY REPEAT ITSELF
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, THOUGH UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED AND FIZZLE OUT THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR, AND RANGE FROM LOWER-30S IN THE
NORTH TO MID-40S ALONG THE COAST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS INTO THE AREA AND WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOUDIER SKIES REMAIN MORE LIKELY NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CLOUDS
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT, A LOW MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE LOW
LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD SURFACE AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST,
OVERRUNNING AT LEAST SOME OF THE COLDER AIR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW AND WINTRY MIX NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS
WESTERN NH. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THE
COLD AIR DAM OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND HOLDS. MODELS HAVE
ALWAYS STRUGGLED WITH THIS, AND TEND TO HAVE A WARMER BIAS IN
THESE OVERRUNNING LOW SITUATIONS. THIS TIME AROUND, MODELS ARE
GENERALLY LATCHING ONTO TWO DISTINCT SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST
(GFS/CMC) BRING MORE RAIN AND WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA, AND
COMPLETELY OVERRUN THE COLD AIR OVERHEAD. THE SECOND (ECMWF/NAM)
BRING THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH, WITH SECONDARY REDEVELOPMENT OVER
THE GULF OF MAINE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SECONDARY LOW WOULD
DISRUPT THE CIRCULATION ADVECTING THE WARM AIR, ALLOWING FOR
RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT MORE CONSISTENT HEAVY, WET
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
BOTH SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT. LIQUID
ACCUMULATIONS OF ABOUT 0.5-1" ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AS WELL AS A LIGHT GLAZE
OF ICE IN WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE MENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE. A
PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO FORM, POTENTIALLY BRINGING BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, NEXT WEEK LOOKS
COOLER AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHRA ALONG THE COAST
AND INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SHSN TOWARDS THE WHITES AND
CAN/US BORDER. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DON'T INDICATE MUCH
VISIBILITY IMPACT WITH THESE LIGHT SHOWERS, BUT SNOW MAY BRING
VIS DOWN TO 3 OR 4 SM FOR SHORT DURATIONS, MAINLY AT HIE. THERE
WILL BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR AND COAST
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A TREND TO VFR IS EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION MAY BE AUG WHERE A RIBBON OF MVFR COULD
SETTLE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
VFR FRIDAY WITH BREEZY NW WINDS UP TO 20KT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED INLAND.
THESE DIMINISH IN THE EVENING, WITH CLOUDS REMAINING UPSTREAM
FROM THE WHITES AND WESTERN ME MTNS.
LONG TERM...MOST TERMINALS CONTINUE TO TREND VFR SATURDAY. STILL
THE CHANCE FOR MVFR LINGERING NEAR THE US/CAN BORDER. CEILINGS
WILL THEN BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY,
WITH A PLUME OF IFR CEILINGS MOSTLY FROM THE WHITES TO AUG AND
THE ME COAST. PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THESE LOWERED
CEILINGS. SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR WILL LIKELY ALSO
IMPACT VISIBILITY, WHILE RAIN MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND THE
IMMEDIATE ME COAST. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR THE CHANCE FOR
FREEZING PRECIP DURING A PERIOD OF THIS SYSTEM.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW INTO
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NEARS BUT PASSES TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR WINDS AND WAVES, BUT COULD
SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS.
LONG TERM...NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY
EVENING, WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY
MORNING, THEN LOW/COLD FRONT THAT AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING STRONGEST WINDS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, W
AROUND 30 KTS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON EVENING. THESE WILL BUILD
WAVES 5 TO 7 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS, BUT BAYS/HARBORS WILL BE
LOWER MINUS LOCAL WIND WAVE. MAY NEED GALE HEADLINES FOR THE
OUTER MARINE ZONES DURING THIS PERIOD.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PALMER
NEAR TERM...EKSTER/PALMER
SHORT TERM...PALMER
LONG TERM...PALMER
AVIATION...CORNWELL
MARINE...CORNWELL
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