748
FXUS61 KGYX 141142
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
642 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM CANADA ON SUNDAY,
WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR NH AND MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THE STORM, BREEZY WINDS AND
UPSLOPE SNOW ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
642 AM UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND T/TDS TO ALIGN WITH
OBSERVED TRENDS.
PREVIOUSLY...
ONE MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH LARGER PARENT LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT TO SEA WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. AS A RESULT CLOUDS WILL FILL IN AGAIN BY AFTERNOON WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 40S AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 30S LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. NW
WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY WITH 20 MPH GUSTS LIKELY TODAY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
WE'LL GET A BREAK IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER (BUT STILL SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT). THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SOME INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
EVENING UPDATE...
WORKED TO INCORPORATE COOLER HIGH RES GUIDANCE FOR THE COLD AIR
DAMMING SET UP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, WITH PRESSURE FALLS IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. THIS SHOULD HOLD THE COOLER AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENT, WITH TEMPS THEN RISING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS SOME FREEZING
RAIN, ESPECIALLY TO CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
LIGHT ICE ACCRETION LIKELY. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST INTO MAINE,
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT THE MIDCOAST MAY START AS A LITTLE
SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.
FULL DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY NIGHT, A LOW MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE LOW
LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD SURFACE AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST,
OVERRUNNING AT LEAST SOME OF THE COLDER AIR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW AND WINTRY MIX NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS
WESTERN NH. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THE
COLD AIR DAM OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND HOLDS. MODELS HAVE
ALWAYS STRUGGLED WITH THIS, AND TEND TO HAVE A WARMER BIAS IN
THESE OVERRUNNING LOW SITUATIONS. THIS TIME AROUND, MODELS ARE
GENERALLY LATCHING ONTO TWO DISTINCT SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST
(GFS/CMC) BRING MORE RAIN AND WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA, AND
COMPLETELY OVERRUN THE COLD AIR OVERHEAD. THE SECOND (ECMWF/NAM)
BRING THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH, WITH SECONDARY REDEVELOPMENT OVER
THE GULF OF MAINE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SECONDARY LOW WOULD
DISRUPT THE CIRCULATION ADVECTING THE WARM AIR, ALLOWING FOR
RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT MORE CONSISTENT HEAVY, WET
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
BOTH SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT. LIQUID
ACCUMULATIONS OF ABOUT 0.5-1" ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AS WELL AS A LIGHT GLAZE
OF ICE IN WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE MENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE. A
PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO FORM, POTENTIALLY BRINGING BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, NEXT WEEK LOOKS
COOLER AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR FRIDAY WITH BREEZY NW WINDS UP TO 20KT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR EXCEPT PERHAPS A KHIE. MOST TERMINALS CONTINUE TO
BE VFR SATURDAY.
LONG TERM... CEILINGS BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY, WITH IFR CEILINGS LIKELY FROM THE WHITES TO AUG AND THE
ME COAST. PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THESE LOWERED CEILINGS.
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR WILL LIKELY ALSO IMPACT
VISIBILITY, WHILE RAIN MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND THE
IMMEDIATE ME COAST. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR THE CHANCE FOR
FREEZING PRECIP DURING A PERIOD OF THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH MONDAY AT MOST TERMINALS, WITH
MVFR LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30KT OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW INTO
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NEARS BUT PASSES TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR WINDS AND WAVES, BUT COULD
SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS.
LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY
EVENING, WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY
MORNING, THEN LOW/COLD FRONT THAT AFTERNOON. SCA TO GALES ARE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WATER FOR MIDWEEK.
MARINE
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CLAIR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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