272
FXUS61 KGYX 141753
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1253 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL SLICE
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE SATURDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS LIKELY, ALONG THE TRACK SOME WINTRY MIX INCLUDING LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN, AND SOUTH OF THE TRACK WILL STAY MOSTLY RAIN.
ONCE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT IT WILL GET GUSTY AS WESTERLY WINDS
PICK UP. THERE WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MOST RECENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MIDCOAST, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS PRESENT ELSEWHERE. THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, AN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE MOUNTAINS, THOUGH PRECIPITAION ACROSS NH AND
MAINE SHOULD BE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN, AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHILLIER NIGHT
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE MID-20S MOST PLACES.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OVERHEAD TOMORROW, WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
SATURDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FEEL COMPARABLE TO TODAY'S,
WITH LOW 40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THE LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD AIR CURRENTLY OVERHEAD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND, PRODUCING WINTER WEATHER. THE STORM TRACK HAS SOME
OVERRUNNING CHARACTERISTICS, WITH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE. IT IS HOWEVER, A MORE INVERTED
SETUP, AS THE LOW SHOULD TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE OVERRUNNING
MOVING MORE WEST TO EAST RATHER THAN THE TYPICAL SOUTH TO NORTH. LOW-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS IT
APPROACHES NEW HAMPSHIRE, RESULTING IN MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOWFALL RATES. UNCERTAINTY DOES REMAIN REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION, AS WELL AS ICING AMOUNTS. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ON BOTH, SUGGESTING ICING COULD BE MORE PREVALENT IN
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHILE OTHER MEMBER SUGGESTING THAT MOST OF
THE ICING STAYS SOUTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ICING BEING PLACED
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE APPEARS MORE REALISTIC, AND SLEET SEEMS
MORE LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THESE TWO REGIONS, EVEN WITHIN THE WARMER GUIDANCE SHOW A
MORE SHALLOW WARM LAYER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH AND A DEEPER
LAYER OF WARM AIR ACROSS CENTRAL NEW HAMSPHIRE. THIS INDICATES THAT
THE HIGHEST FREEZING RAIN TOTALS SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS, AND I OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR GRAFTON, NORTHERN CARROLL AND SOUTHERN COOS COUNTIES. AN
EXPANSION INTO OTHER PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE MAY BE NEEDED IF
GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE CLEAR ON ICING AMOUNTS.
THERMAL PROFILES SHOW MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET EVENT NORTH AND EAST OF
THE WHITES, THOUGH MANY PLACES IN THE WHITE MOUNTAIN REGION COULD
SEE BOTH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET PERIODICALLY. NORTH OF THE WHITES
AND ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE, THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARM NOSE AND BRING MORE SNOW. IN MAINE,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MORE RAIN OR SNOW, WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME
SLEET MIXING IN RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RA/SN
LINE. THE NORTHERN END OF THE RA/SN LINE APPEARS TO SET UP JUST
SOUTH OF THE US-2 CORRIDOR. THERE MAYBE A COUPLE HOURS WHERE SNOW
COULD BE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS LEWISTON, THOUGH IT SHOULD BE A
BRIEF, WITH MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. SNOW CHARACTER IS LIKELY TO VARY, BUT MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHOULD BE MORE HEAVY AND WET. LIQUID TOTALS OF
ABOUT 0.25-0.5" IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE, WITH 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE RANGELEY LAKES REGION. THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY
CONTINUE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AS UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE: NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE EXTENDED.
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIP CHANCES OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.
IMPACTS: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. SOME MORE
WIDESPREAD WINTRY WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST DETAILS: BY SUN NIGHT WE WILL BE BACK IN THE POST-
FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH TEMPS NEAR THE WARM END OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. THIS COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT
IN PLENTY OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU MIDWEEK. INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST SOMEWHAT BELOW THE SUMMITS FOR THE HIGH
PEAKS...AND FORECAST FROUDE NUMBERS ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO 1. WHILE
IT IS EARLY YET THAT IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
STICK CLOSER TO THE TERRAIN AND UNBLOCKED FLOW WITH FLURRIES TO
THE COAST IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE THE WEEK WILL START CHILLY AND GRADUALLY MODERATE
THRU THE REMAINDER. THE NEXT WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCE ARRIVES
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. CURRENT ENSEMBLE FORECASTS INDICATE A
WELL POSITIONED HIGH PRESSURE TO HELP HOLD COLD AIR OVER THE
INTERIOR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF SPREAD IN TIMING AND
LOCATION. THE SET UP IS THERE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENTLY THE NBM DOES NOT HAVE ANY APPRECIABLE
PROBABILITIES OF SNOW...BUT KNOWING THAT IT STRUGGLES WITH COLD
AIR DAMMING SCENARIOS I HAVE ENSURED THAT SNOW IS IN THE
FORECAST VS FREEZING RAIN/RAIN ONLY.
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR HIE, WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-DAY SATURDAY. RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO LOWER
SATRUDAY EVENING AS WINTRY WEATHER MOVES IN TO THE AREA.
SATURDAY NIGHT, LOWER RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. VERY
LOW RESTRICTIONS ARE MORE LIKELY IN THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS
WESTERN NH, AS MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THERE.
RESTRICITONS STAY DOWN THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
LONG TERM...ONCE WINDS TURN WESTERLY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
WESTERLY SUN NIGHT CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE MTNS WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO VFR. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER NORTH OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING HIE...INTO MON IF NOT TUE. IT WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SURFACE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT ARE
LIKELY FOR ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20MPH, WITH SEAS OF 2-4FT ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCA ISSUANCE
IS UNLIKELY OVER THIS PERIOD. A LOW MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT,
SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLIES. WINDS AND SEAS STRENGTHEN ON
SUNDAY, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE DAY. SEAS
ALSO LOOK TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY THE END OF THE DAY AS WELL.
LONG TERM...BEHIND THE UPPER TROF WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT SUN. THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO STAY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT AT LEAST...SO
THIS IS WHERE GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. I HAVE
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE ELIZABETH THRU
MON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE COLD ADVECTION AND BECOME
MORE UNIFORM ACROSS ALL WATERS MON. HOWEVER THE NBM WIND GUSTS
SEEM A TAD HIGH BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO I DID NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE FOR A WATCH ACROSS ALL WATERS FOR MON. BEYOND MON
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THRU THE WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR NHZ002>005.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ154.
NEAR TERM...PALMER
SHORT TERM...PALMER
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...LEGRO/PALMER
MARINE...LEGRO/PALMER
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