460
FXUS61 KGYX 160454
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1154 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND POINTS NORTH. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTH THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR WEAKER WINDS AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER UPSTATE NY WILL CONTINUE TO
SWING EAST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS
RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL WESTERN ME BUT A LITTLE
SLEET COULD MIX IN AT TIMES. FURTHER TO THE NORTH, THERMAL
PROFILES WILL LARGELY SUPPORT AN INITIAL "THUMP" OF SNOW ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND FOOTHILLS BEFORE WARMER AIR WILL MOVE IN ALOFT,
DECREASING ICE NUCLEI AND ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN.
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER, MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY OR EVEN RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. GENERALLY 1-4" OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EXTENDING INTO THE FOOTHILLS
WITH 3-6" ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHER AMOUNTS INTO THE MTNS. A
TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE IS ALSO LIKELY FOR
SOME AREAS WHERE THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL END BETWEEN 4AM-8AM THIS MORNING FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. THE MID-LVL LOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE DAY WITH DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MAINLY CLOUDY AREAWIDE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRISK NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES BUT
WINDCHILL VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER. WESTERLY WINDS
COULD GUST UP TO AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTH.
A COLD DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES SOUTH. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT
FEEL EVEN COLDER. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY,
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25-30MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME.
THESE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER
SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN AFTERWARDS, ALLOWING FOR A DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR A
RIDGE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMUP THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT THE
END OF THE WEEK, WITH A UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AROUND 09Z SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS LATER TODAY AS RA
AND INTERIOR RASN ENDS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT KHIE
WITH UPSLOPE SN. W WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS LATE TODAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXCEPT AT KHIE WHERE UPSLOPE SN WILL CONTINUE. W
WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 30 KTS.
LONG TERM...OTHER THAN SOME SNOW SHOWERS NEAR HIE ON TUESDAY,
VFR IS LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM... SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
WESTERLY LATER TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-8 FT
OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS WITH 1-4 FT IN THE BAYS.
LONG TERM...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR 5-8FT SEAS ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCA ISSUANCE LIKELY. CONDITIONS GO BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENING.
WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012-013-020-033.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>009.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ154.
NEAR TERM...TUBBS
SHORT TERM...TUBBS
LONG TERM...HARGROVE/PALMER
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