719
FXUS61 KGYX 170109
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
809 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPSLOPE SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTH
THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR
CALMER WINDS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCE THEN COMES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
800 PM UPDATE... INCREASED POPS FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS HIGH FROUDE NUMBERS IS ALLOWING LIGHT SNOW TO
EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT BUT IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES AND ROAD
MOISTURE AS THERE COULD BE SOME ICY SPOTS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
IF WINDS DON'T DRY MOISTURE FROM UNTREATED SURFACES.
PREVIOUSLY...
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD UP THE
COAST SO LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BLOSSOMING AGAIN THERE. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS BRIEFLY SUBSIDED, BUT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH THEY ARE GETTING GOING AGAIN. CAMS AND FROUDE NUMBERS
SUGGEST SOME FLAKES MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FOOTHILL AND EVEN THE
COASTAL PLAIN.
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT,
BRINGING SHOWER ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS TO AN END. A
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AN UPPER LOW NOW OVERHEAD WHICH WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER DOWNSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS (WITH A FEW FLAKES
POSSIBLE) AS FLOW REMAINS CRITICAL OVERNIGHT. IN THE MOUNTAINS THE
FORCING FROM BOTH THE SHORTWAVE AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH GRADUAL ACCUMULATIONS. WE REMAIN BREEZY AND
WELL MIXED OVERNIGHT, BUT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION STILL ALLOWS LOW
TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID-20S IN THE NORTH, AND
IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S TO THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED
BY MONDAY MORNING BOTH LOW PRESSURE CENTERS END UP WELL TO OUR
NORTH EAST, TAKING A LOT OF THE MOISTURE WITH THEM. WE SHOULD
START TO SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THE
NOW DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOW 30S. CLEAR SKIES AND DRIER WEATHER SHOULD ALLOW FOR
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS. BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE, SO IT MAY FEEL QUITE A BIT
COLDER (TEENS AND 20S) AS GUSTS ARE IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE.
DESPITE CLEARER SKIES WE REMAIN WELL MIXED, SO RADIATIONAL
COOLING WON'T BE A FACTOR BUT THE CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWER CONTINUE, BUT SURFACE MOISTURE BECOMES SPARSE SO THESE
LIKELY RETREAT TO THE HIGHER PEAKS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WE START OUT THE LONG TERM UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, LEADING
TO SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY, DIMINISHING LATE. THE FLOW
THEN STARTS TO DEAMPLIFY A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
MODEST RIDGING APPROACHES. MOST OF THE SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT A
SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY.
A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A QUICK MOVING (MAINLY DRY) SHORTWAVE ON IT'S HEELS
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE FORCING FROM THIS WEAK WAVE SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BUT A GLANCING BLOW COULD LEAD TO
SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL
UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WE TRANSITION BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH. WIDESPREAD
MEDIUM TO HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT HOW LONG
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOTED
AMONG THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS. PERUSING THE LATEST
CLUSTER ANALYSIS, AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS LIKE A MORE PROGRESSIVE
OPEN WAVE SCENARIO IS CLEARLY FAVORED RATHER THAN A
STRONGER/CLOSED LOW SOLUTION. IF THESE TRENDS KEEP UP, THEN
LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO MAINLY FALL IN THAT
0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW TOTALS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES, WE SHOULD VERY GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH
THE WEEK. THAT BEING SAID, WE START OFF WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL
(MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH, TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH) ON
TUESDAY, AND MOVE TOWARDS HIGHS ONLY AROUND NORMAL (UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S NORTH, TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH) BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS
REMAIN HIGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, LIKELY A SYMPTOM OF THE
PATTERN UNCERTAINTY DISCUSSED ABOVE.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...TAF SITES ARE MOSTLY VFR WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS SHOWERS COME TO AN END. WIND GUSTS REMAIN AROUND 20KTS AT
MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIE LIKELY STAYS MVFR WITH
LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT. VFR PREVAILS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
TOMORROW AS WELL WITH WIND GUSTS 25-30KTS.
LONG TERM...OTHER THAN SOME SNOW SHOWERS NEAR HIE ON TUESDAY,
VFR IS LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD LEAD TO SOME RESTRICTIONS LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WESTERLY GALES DEVELOP ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS
EVENING AND LAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7
FEET. GALES TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT MONDAY, BUT WIND GUSTS REMAIN
25- 30KTS, WITH SEAS 5-6 FEET INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR 4-7FT SEAS ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCA ISSUANCE LIKELY. CONDITIONS GO BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENING.
WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ154.
NEAR TERM...TUBBS
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