105
FXUS61 KGYX 170452
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1152 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPSLOPE SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTH
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR
CALMER WINDS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCE THEN COMES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS DOWNEAST ME
AND NOVA SCOTIA EARLY ON THIS MONDAY MORNING WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS EXPECTED, THIS SNOW IS
BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THESE AREAS AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND THROUGH THIS MORNING. IT WILL OTHERWISE
BE A BREEZY AND COLD MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS AND WINDCHILL VALUES
AROUND 10 DEGREES COLDER. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ICY
SPOTS THIS MORNING WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FREEZES, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS UNTREATED SURFACES.
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 40 KTS AT THE TOP OF A WELL MIXED LAYER
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS
BETWEEN 35-40 MPH AT TIMES. SOME LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS AS FROUDE NUMBERS REMAIN
HIGH. IT WILL OTHERWISE BE A MAINLY CLOUDY DAY WITH UPSLOPE SNOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LOWER 40S
SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
20S AREAWIDE BUT WINDCHILLS WILL BE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN A
LITTLE BUT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
UPSLOPE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTH
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A
BRIGHTER DAY IS LIKELY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SOUTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15-25 MPH. DESPITE THE ADDED SUNSHINE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVG WITH READINGS MAINLY INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH LOW 40S IN SOUTHERN NH AND ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
UPDATE...NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WITH A LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE DETAILS OF THIS WEEKEND'S
SYSTEM BUT WINTRY PRECIPITATION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. TROUGHING
MOVES IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PREVIOUSLY...
WE START OUT THE LONG TERM UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, LEADING
TO SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY, DIMINISHING LATE. THE FLOW
THEN STARTS TO DEAMPLIFY A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
MODEST RIDGING APPROACHES. MOST OF THE SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT A
SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY.
A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A QUICK MOVING (MAINLY DRY) SHORTWAVE ON IT'S HEELS
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE FORCING FROM THIS WEAK WAVE SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BUT A GLANCING BLOW COULD LEAD TO
SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL
UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WE TRANSITION BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH. WIDESPREAD
MEDIUM TO HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT HOW LONG
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOTED
AMONG THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS. PERUSING THE LATEST
CLUSTER ANALYSIS, AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS LIKE A MORE PROGRESSIVE
OPEN WAVE SCENARIO IS CLEARLY FAVORED RATHER THAN A
STRONGER/CLOSED LOW SOLUTION. IF THESE TRENDS KEEP UP, THEN
LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO MAINLY FALL IN THAT
0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW TOTALS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES, WE SHOULD VERY GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH
THE WEEK. THAT BEING SAID, WE START OFF WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL
(MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH, TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH) ON
TUESDAY, AND MOVE TOWARDS HIGHS ONLY AROUND NORMAL (UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S NORTH, TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH) BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS
REMAIN HIGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, LIKELY A SYMPTOM OF THE
PATTERN UNCERTAINTY DISCUSSED ABOVE.
AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT AT KHIE WHERE MVFR CIGS AND -SN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW. NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. NO
LLWS IS ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM...VFR IS LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. A RETURN
OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD LEAD TO SOME
RESTRICTIONS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...W-NW GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS.
ACROSS THE BAYS, GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AND SEAS OF 1-4 FT ARE
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS GO BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENING. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER
AND MORE VARIABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ151-153.
NEAR TERM...TUBBS
SHORT TERM...TUBBS
LONG TERM...HARGROVE/PALMER
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