746
FXUS61 KGYX 011824
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
124 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE FIRST WIDESPREAD WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
PLOWABLE SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL BRIEFLY TURN QUIETER ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SQUALLS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE TEMPERATURES TURN SHARPLY
COLDER TO END THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSS
THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE FINALLY WINDING DOWN AND THOSE THAT
REMAIN ARE CONFINED LARGELY TO NORTH OF DIXVILLE NOTCH AND
RANGELEY.
THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS SHOULD RADIATE WELL EARLY ON...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUAL WIN OUT AND STEADY THAT DROP. IT WILL STILL BE A CHILLY
NIGHT HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE TEENS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
***FIRST SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING***
AFTER A SEASON OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
PERIODS OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...THE FIRST WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A NARROWING OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE
TOWARDS A CONSENSUS...BUT SIGNIFICANT QUESTIONS REMAIN AND COULD
SERIOUSLY IMPACT SNOWFALL TOTALS.
BROADLY SPEAKING MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
FEATURE A STRONG JET STREAK IN EXCESS OF 180 KT CENTERED
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PLACE US IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF ENHANCED LIFT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION. MODELS
ALSO AGREE THAT THE H8 MID LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF...BUT H7
REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE UNTIL THE STORM CENTER IS CLOSER TO NOVA
SCOTIA. WITH THAT IN MIND I EXPECT THE MID LEVEL FORCING TO BE
GOOD FOR THE LOCAL AREA AND GETTING BETTER THRU THE EVENT. THE
SET UP STILL FAVORS A ROBUST LATERALLY QUASI-STAITONARY BAND OF
SNOW SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME I ANTICIPATE
THAT TO SETTLE SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN NH AND ALONG OR JUST
INLAND OF THE WESTERN MAINE COASTLINE. UNDER THE BAND SNOWFALL
RATES MAY BE INTENSE AT TIMES...AND 1 INCH PER HOUR OR MORE IS
POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD DROP OFF QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THAT DUE TO CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE OUTSIDE
OF THE BAND ITSELF.
THAT CREATES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVY
SNOWFALL. I COULD SEE TOTALS COMING UNDER WHAT I HAVE
FORECAST...BUT GIVEN IT WILL BE THE FIRST PLOWABLE ACCUMULATION
FOR MANY THERE WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS
REGARDLESS. THE SAME IS TRUE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE THE NBM IS
INSISTENT ON WARM TEMPS AND CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. I PREFER COLDER
SOLUTIONS JUST BASED ON THE STORM TRACK AND HEAVY PRECIP
LOWERING TEMPS THRU THE LATENT COOLING OF MELTING. I DID SPLIT
OUT THE COASTAL ZONES FROM THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO MENTION
THE RAIN THREAT...AND EVEN IF IT DID OCCUR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL JUSTIFY THE HEADLINE. IN THE MTNS AND NORTH I HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
LATE TUE NIGHT THE STORM WILL PULL AWAY AND WINDS FLIP
NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME GUSTY. THAT WILL BRING A QUICK END TO
SNOWFALL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
* ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS
THURSDAY NIGHT.
* UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO ANY POTENTIAL WEEKEND STORMINESS.
RECENT TREND FAVORS A LOWER CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND.
DETAILS: MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTEX CENTERED AROUND HUDSON BAY WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE SPLITTING WITH A CHUNK
SLIDING TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND EAST BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE FEATURES ROTATING AROUND THIS BROADER TROUGH FORM
THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTFUL WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A
POTENT ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NEXT WAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH
REGARDS TO THE DEGREE OF PHASING BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...WHICH YIELDS A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF THE WEEKEND OUTCOME...
GUIDANCE SPREAD DECREASES HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A RETURN TO CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THURSDAY: ARCTIC FRONTAL TIMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON SUGGESTS DECENT
LLEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE IN PLAY TO SUPPORT SNOW SQUALLS. AT THE
SAME TIME...GOOD ISALLOBARIC PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH H9
WINDS AROUND 30KTS SUPPORT 30-35MPH GUSTS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
AS T8S DROP BELOW -20C THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THIS AIRMASS....WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW
ZERO THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND: A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL RAPIDLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE GUIDANCE TREND OVER THE PAST 24-48 HOURS
HAS BEEN LESS PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A DRIER SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS /SQUALLS?/ POSSIBLE WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING WELL BELOW
NORMAL AS WE BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT. PRECIP RAPIDLY
APPROACHES TUE MORNING AND CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY DROP FROM VFR
TO IFR OR LOWER AS IT ARRIVES. I ANTICIPATE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE
TAF SITES...BUT THERE IS A THREAT THAT RAIN MAY MIX AT
PSM...PWM...AND RKD IF THE STRONGEST AND FARTHEST NORTHWEST
STORM TRACKS END UP VERIFYING. REGARDLESS IFR CONDITIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY DURING THE STORM AS WELL AS A PERIOD OF SNOW FOR ALL
TERMINALS SOUTH OF THE MTNS THAT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL
RATES MAY EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR ALONG WITH VISIBILITY ONE
QUARTER MILE OR LESS. AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY WE RETURN TO VFR
EXCEPT FOR HIE WHERE MVFR CIGS CONTINUE. IN ADDITION SURFACE
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SQUALLS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
IT/S WAKE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY. MOST LIKELY
SOLUTION IS FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...BUT
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...OR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCAS ON ALL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD TONIGHT
AND ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. THEN A
STRONG/DEEPENING COASTAL STORM WILL CROSS THE EDGE OF THE GULF
OF MAINE AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASING WINDS. SCAS ARE
LIKELY...BUT A SMALL PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TUE. I HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS FOR THAT THREAT.
LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING SCA WAVES
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHWESTERLY AND
STRENGTHENING BACK TO 25- 30KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY...AND CURRENTLY LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS INTO SATURDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR MEZ012>014-018>028-033.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001>003.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR NHZ004>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/LEGRO
MARINE...ARNOTT/LEGRO
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