004
FXUS61 KGYX 030859
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
359 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE PULLS EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF BEFORE SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THURSDAY BRINGING THE THREAT OF SNOW SQUALLS. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO
SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
LOW PRESSURE IS NOW TRACKING ENE AWAY FROM CAPE COD WITH THE
BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW ALIGNED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
THROUGH THE CT VALLEY. A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW IS NOW ALIGNED
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF NW
TO SE WITH SNOW ENDING ALONG THE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING AND WILL SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM SE CANADA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WHILE LOWS WILL STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS NORTH TO 20S
SOUTH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
UPDATE... LITTLE CHANGE SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS ON THURSDAY, BRINGING POTENTIALLY
IMPACTFUL SNOW SQUALLS DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION, NW WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND WINDCHILL VALUES
APPROACHING 20 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDER
THAN AVG TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
PREVIOUSLY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A POTENT ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT.
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, A SMALL AMOUNT OF
CAPE AND FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST THAT HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS
AND/OR SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS (SUPPORTED BY SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS OF
2 TO 4 FROM THE NAM AND GFS). THIS ALSO APPLIES DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND EVEN ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST AS FROUDE NUMBERS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE THE SUPERCRITICAL LEVEL OF 2.
WINDS BECOME BREEZY THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
A VERY COLD AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PUSH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO FOR
MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY MORNING.
FORTUNATELY THE WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT IT WILL
BE A COLD DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 20S AND EVEN 10S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. IF CLOUDS CAN HOLD OFF, FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE IF SKIES DO REMAIN CLEAR ENOUGH.
FOR THE WEEKEND, A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO
PARTS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLY
SEEING LINGERING UPSLOPE PRECIP INTO SUNDAY, BUT PROBABILITIES
FOR OVER AN INCH OF SNOW ARE LOW (10-30% FROM THE ECMWF AND EVEN
LOWER FROM THE GFS).
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING
COLDER THAN NORMAL.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. VFR
PREVAILS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...SNOW SQUALLS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED INSTANCES OF IFR-LIFR RESTRICTIONS. IN
ADDITION, NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 20 KTS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE PULLS EAST AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS MORNING WITH NORTHERLY GALES IN ITS WAKE. WINDS SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WHILE SEAS WILL STILL RUN AROUND 5
FEET. SW WINDS RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
AN ARCTIC FRONT. SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS WILL BUILD TO 6-9 FT
WITH 1-4 FT IN THE BAYS. FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ151-
153.
NEAR TERM...SCHROETER
SHORT TERM...SCHROETER
LONG TERM...TUBBS
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