677
FXUS61 KGYX 040553
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1253 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BARREL THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY TODAY. SCATTERED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ALONG THE
FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM THE 30S INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
EVEN BELOW ZERO IN PLACES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS EVEN AT
THE COAST WILL BE BELOW ZERO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER
FRIDAY AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLICE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE TUMBLING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VERY COLD WIND CHILLS IN PLACE.
HAVE ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AS WIND CHILL VALUES EVEN IN THE VALLEYS SHOULD GET DOWN TO
AROUND -20F.
MOST OF THE PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS ARE
PRESENT NEAR AND ALONG THE FRONT TODAY, EVEN AT THE COAST. SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN NH AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING WITH BROKEN LINES OF SNOW SQUALLS MARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD
THEREAFTER AS THE FRONT MARCHES ON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SQUALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL ME WILL BE AFTER 19Z OR
SO, WITH THE THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT THE 22Z-00Z
TIMEFRAME. ANY AREA THAT EXPERIENCES A SQUALL TODAY SHOULD
EXPECT BRIEF VERY LOW VISIBILITIES, GUSTY WINDS, AND DANGEROUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SNOW SQUALL
WARNINGS WILL HAVE TO BE ISSUED, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COMMUTES. THEREAFTER, TEMPERATURES TAKE
A TUMBLE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT IT WILL GET GUSTY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 30 TO 35 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING.
THE WINDS WILL ALSO COMING WITH PLUMMETING TEMPS. BY FRI
MORNING WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED GOING BELOW ZERO
IN THE MOUNTAINS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS ALL IN AGREEMENT ON AN
ANOMALOUS AIR MASS...WITH EXTREME TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
POSSIBLE. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH NBM FORECASTS OF RECORD OR
NEAR-RECORD TEMPS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. WITH THE COLD
TEMPS AND CONTINUED GRADIENT WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY
GET TO AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
THEREFORE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
COOS COUNTY NH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS.
FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH, TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE SOUTH. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
RELAXING, SOME WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WILL LEAD TO SOME
FRIGID WIND CHILLS STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE DAY UNDER NEAR ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FOR MOST, BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW SINGLE DIGITS IN/AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOME MID 20S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PATTERN OVERVIEW: THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED AS
TROUGHING DOMINATES THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE RIDGING BRINGS
US A DRY START TO THE WEEK. THEN, THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
SIGNIFICANCE IS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK.
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
*NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
*TEMPERATURES RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, WITH VERY COLD NIGHTS.
DETAILS:
FRIDAY NIGHT: FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY FEEL SLIGHTLY WARMER AS
WINDS CALM. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND
THIS ADDS SOME CLOUDS TO THE MIX, BUT IT IS LIKELY WE CAN STILL
RADIATE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE
CONVERGED ON LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH, BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE COULD SNEAK INTO THE REGION TO SUSTAIN SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG A SHORTWAVE. FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MAY SEE
THIS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: LIGHT SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH
THE REST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MOST OF WESTERN MAINE HAVING AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING SOME FLAKES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
KEEPS HIGH TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE MID- TO UPPER 20S
AREAWIDE, WITH LOW 30S POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE LAST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEPARTS DURING THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE CONTINUES PULLING OFF TO THE EAST.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMED
THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD SO LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHICH KEEPS
THE AREA MOSTLY DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. A LITTLE BIT OF A SUNNIER DAY
SHOULD AID HIGH TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING INTO THE MID- TO UPPER
30S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
NORTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT,
PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. A STIFF BREEZE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT FEEL MORE
LIKE IT'S SUB- ZERO. FORCING FROM THE FRONT ALONG WITH FORCING
FROM A BROAD TROUGH APPROACHING ALOFT MAY ALSO TIP OFF SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE, BUT QUESTIONS ABOUT
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM ARISE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. THE GLOBAL SUITES ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
OUR AREA MID-WEEK, BUT THE TRACK AFTER THAT IS WHERE THEY
CURRENTLY DIVERGE. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING IS PRETTY TIGHT FOR AN
INITIAL INSIDE RUNNER, BUT THE ECMWF IS LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN
FOR A JOG TO THE SOUTH (COLDER SOLUTION FOR OUR AREA), WHILE THE
GFS CLUSTERS MOSTLY REMAIN ON THE INSIDE TO OVERHEAD TRACK
(PULLS IN WARMER AIR). THIS IS GOING TO BE THE PERIOD TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS GOING FORWARD.
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS AND
BRIEF LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FRONT SURFACE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST OF
THE MTNS SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE
FLOW/SNOW SHOWERS.
LONG TERM...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAY BRING ABOUT BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER
RESTRICTIONS, BUT OUTSIDE OF THESE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ANTICIPATED BEHIND IT.
GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS INTO TONIGHT.
WHILE WATERS ARE STILL RELATIVELY WARM...THE COMING AIR MASS
WILL BE QUITE COLD AND SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING SPRAY ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS RAMP UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING
BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS TAPER OFF BUT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE BUILDS SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS
SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
THIS AIR MASS ON FRI MORNING WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AND LOW
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE AT PWM
WHERE THE FORECAST IS 4 DEGREES AND THE PREVIOUS RECORD IS 7 IN
BOTH 1989 AND 1945. THE FORECAST AT AUG IS 5 DEGREES AND THE
PREVIOUS RECORD IS 4 SET IN BOTH 1989 AND 1991.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-
152-154.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-
153.
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER/LEGRO/HARGROVE
LONG TERM...BARON
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