560
FXUS61 KGYX 042354
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
654 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM THE 30S INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN
BELOW ZERO IN PLACES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS EVEN AT THE
COAST WILL BE BELOW ZERO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY AND
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
645 PM UPDATE...ARCTIC FRONT HAS CLEARED THE REGION AND VERY
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN ON GUSTY NW WINDS. THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
PREVIOUSLY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER IT PASSES. BEHIND
THE FRONT, MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 3-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OF 5
TO 7 MB, ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND PORTIONS OF
COASTAL MAINE. A FEW HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR SQUALLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER REFLECTIVITY CORES, SO STAY WEATHER
READY IF TRAVELING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES. WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTH, WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH BUT WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH CLEARING FOR SOME SOLID
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR MOST OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY WITH A FRESH
SNOWPACK IN PLACE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
NORTH, TO THE AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO SOUTH. A FEW READINGS IN THE
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ARE NOT OUR OF THE QUESTION IN SOME OF THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS. WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD WIND
CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH WHERE WE COULD SEE VALUES AS LOW AS 25 BELOW. SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS COULD EVEN SEE VALUES OF 30 BELOW OR LOWER AND COASTAL
REGIONS SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO. WE DID EXPAND THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE NORTHERN GRAFTON AND SOUTHERN COOS
COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC BY LATE
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND TURNS NEARLY ZONAL. LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT.
FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING AS DISCUSSED IN
THE NEAR TERM. IT WILL STAY COLD DURING THE DAY BUT THE WINDS WILL
AT LEAST BE MUCH LIGHTER. HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
TEENS NORTH, TO THE LOW TO MID 20S SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST.
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULDN'T BE AS COLD WITH SOME MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION FORECAST LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO NORTH, TO THE LOWER TEENS SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
OVERVIEW: THE REGION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE PRIMARY STORM
TRACK INTO THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG JET POSITIONS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. THIS KEEPS SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AT BAY FOR A
COUPLE DAYS, BUT ALSO KEEPS THE AREA BELOW NORMAL FOR
TEMPERATURES. A MORE STORMY PATTERN EMERGES IN THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS: EXITING HIGH PRESSURE AIDS IN SOME RETURN FLOW
SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS SOME TEMPERATURE MODERATION AS WELL AS
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE COAST. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BRINGING SOME QPF
TO THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS LIKELY IS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST VIA THE TAIL OF A PASSING FRONT.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO PROMOTE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FEEL MILD COMPARED TO LATE WEEK AND
EARLY NEXT, WITH VALUES IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. THESE COULD
END UP A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN SPOTS THAT GO CALM, BUT A
GENTLE BREEZE AND SOME LINGERING CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT A FULL
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
NORTHWEST BREEZE CONTINUES SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DIVES INTO
THE MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN OR END MTN SNOW SHOWERS AS IT
ADVECTS DRIER AIR TOWARDS NH. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DEPICTING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS COMES IN A FEW MODES AND
STRENGTHS ACROSS THE MODEL SUITE, THE GFS IS THE MOST AMPLIFIED,
WHILE OTHERS DEPICT A SIMPLE WEAK CLIPPER. FOR NOW, A LIGHT
DUSTING SEEMS MOST LIKELY FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT USHERS BACK IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS.
AFOREMENTIONED MIDWEST HIGH SWINGS INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RETURN COLD, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS AGAIN FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. THANKFULLY, WITH THE HIGH
NEARING OVERHEAD, IT WON'T BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG, GUSTY WINDS
LIKE PRESENT.
EXIT OF THE HIGH WILL BRING AN ACTIVE PATTERN BACK TO THE
REGION. WILL BE FOLLOWING AN ADDITIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WED MORNING, AND A POTENTIALLY MORE POTENT SYSTEM
ATTEMPTING TO PHASE LATE WED INTO THURSDAY. THIS WOULD AGAIN
HAVE GOOD JET DYNAMICS TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD LIFT AHEAD OF A
TILTING TROUGH ALOFT. A NEGATIVE TILT MAY BE ACHIEVED BY THE
TIME THE LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST, BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN
IF IT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TO THE NORTH OR DIGS FURTHER EAST.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS
AND BRIEF LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FRONT,
SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN
UPSLOPE FLOW/SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...SOME LOWERED CEILINGS TO MVFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY,
WITH SOME LIGHT SN FOR COASTAL TERMINALS. THIS LIFTS NORTHEAST
IN THE EVENING, WITH SN CONTINUING TOWARDS MOUNTAIN TERMINALS
LIKE HIE. TREND TOWARDS VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ANTICIPATED
BEHIND IT. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS INTO
TONIGHT. WHILE WATERS ARE STILL RELATIVELY WARM, THE COMING AIR
MASS WILL BE QUITE COLD AND SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING SPRAY ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. NW WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WINDS NEAR
30 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS BUILD 4 TO 5 FT. THESE BRIEFLY SUBSIDE
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM WED INTO THURS BRINGS ANOTHER
PERIOD OF GREATER WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.
CLIMATE
THIS AIR MASS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORDS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE
TRUE AT PWM WHERE THE FORECAST IS 2 DEGREES AND THE CURRENT
RECORD IS 7 IN BOTH 1989 AND 1945. THE FORECAST AT AUG IS 2
DEGREES AND THE CURRENT RECORD IS 4 SET IN BOTH 1989 AND 1991.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NHZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...EKSTER/HARGROVE
SHORT TERM...HARGROVE
LONG TERM...CORNWELL
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...
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