714
FXUS61 KGYX 051851
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
151 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
WHILE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST LATER TODAY AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN
SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE COAST ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.
WHILE THE CENTER OF OF THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC LATER TODAY, WE WILL STILL SEE COLD CONDITIONS AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, ONLY RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTH,
TO THE LOW TO MID 20S SOUTH.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT BUT NOT AS COLD AS LAST
NIGHT. WHILE WINDS AND SNOWPACK WILL GENERALLY BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING, INCREASING CLOUD COVER BRINGS IN SOME
UNCERTAINTY. FOR THIS REASON, DECIDED NOT TO DEVIATE FROM NBM
TOO MUCH FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, BUT AREAS THAT SEE LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER COULD TANK.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ON SATURDAY, WE TRANSITION BACK INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE
NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. A WEAK LEADING WAVE WILL
RIDE UP THE COAST, LEADING TO SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS, COASTAL COUNTIES, AND POSSIBLY INTO
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
LOSS OF ICE IN THE COLUMN WITH SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. THIS
WOULD END UP LEADING TO SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SOME SITES ALSO SUGGEST SOME
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES
AT TIMES WHICH WOULD MANIFEST AS LIGHT SNOW. FOR NOW, DECIDED
TO JUST STICK WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MENTION TO SEE HOW FORECAST
SOUNDINGS EVOLVE.
THE OTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
HANG ON BEHIND THE FRONT IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND EXPANDED BROAD MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW THERE. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT,
MAYBE A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER A BIT ON SATURDAY BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH. A FEW READINGS IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND A FEW UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS
NORTH TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
STRENGTHEN FURTHER IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY MAKE THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE SLICK
FOR A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DETAILS:
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE AGREES THAT STRENGTHENING
TAKES PLACE AS IT QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY,
BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE DIFFERING FEATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW AS
WELL AS HOW NORTH/SOUTH THE LOW'S CENTER IS AS IT PUSHES ACROSS
SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST FEATURE TO WATCH IS THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF A
NORLUN-ESQUE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ME COAST LATE
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE SPURRED ON BY THE FORMATION OF
LOCAL LOW PRES OFF THE NH SEACOAST BEFORE SWINGING NORTH AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE LOCALIZED INVERTED TROUGH BASED ON WIND
CONVERGENCE WOULD FOCUS A BAND OF PRECIP PERPENDICULAR TO THE
COAST, GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE MIDCOAST OVERNIGHT. THESE
CAN SOMETIMES LEAD TO LOCALLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TOTALS.
THIS FEATURE, TYPICALLY BETTER REPRESENTED BEST IN NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE, SHOULD PROVE MORE OR LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE COMING
FORECAST CYCLES. UNTIL THEN, THERE ARE SOME DETERMINISTIC RUNS
SUPPORTING THE FEATURE SUCH AS THE NAM, CANADIAN, AND GFS.
SECOND TO THIS, WILL BE HOW PROGRESSIVE THE BAND IS. MAIN LOW,
QUICKLY MOVING EAST, WOULD TAKE OVER IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
MONDAY. THIS WOULD DISRUPT THE CHANNEL OF WIND CONVERGENCE,
ASSIMILATING IT INTO IT'S OWN FRONTOGENESIS BANDING.
DID DELAY PRECIPITATION EXIT PER SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEM BE EFFICIENT, A
FRESH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE PRESENT FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. LOCALLY HIGHER CAN'T BE RULED OUT SHOULD THE
AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH LINGER. OF GREATER CONFIDENCE IS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION, WITH GREATEST QPF FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NH AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN ME.
THE EXITING SYSTEM MONDAY BRINGS ANOTHER PUNCH OF COLD AIR ON
NW FLOW AS DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY GET TO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE DAY, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES HOVERING
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE (ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR) AND
BELOW ZERO (ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS AND US/CAN BORDER). THE DRY
AIRMASS WILL SEE MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS MIRROR LAST NIGHT'S LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE SHORTLIVED AS SW FLOW
INCREASES BEHIND EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK
INTO LATE WEEK. THE SECOND SYSTEM FEATURES A STRONGER LOW
COUPLED WITH A MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LLJ ALONG THE
EAST COAST. IT REPRESENTS ANOTHER LIKELY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THE AREA, BUT WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR WARMER AIR TO BRING
MIXED PRECIP TYPES TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MOVE IN, MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
LONG TERM...VFR SUNDAY, WITH LOWERING CLOUDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. LIGHT SN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL AS EXPECTED MVFR CEILINGS. THESE
MAY LINGER TOWARDS COASTAL TERMINALS INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT
TREND VFR SHORTLY AFTER NOON LOCAL. MONDAY FEATURES BRISK NW
WINDS, WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS MOST AREA TERMINALS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY BECOME NW INTO
MONDAY, INCREASING AS THE MORNING GOES ON. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE WATERS MONDAY, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO GALE POSSIBLE
INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD AIR TEMPS TUESDAY
MORNING MAY RESULT IN LIGHT SEASMOKE. A LULL IN WIND TUESDAY
WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING SW FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS A ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HARGROVE
SHORT TERM...HARGROVE
LONG TERM...CORNWELL
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