414
FXUS61 KGYX 070600
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
100 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PASS OVER THE REGION BY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DEPARTING MONDAY. AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A FEW MORE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A FAIR DAY THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL
THEN BRING TEMPS A LITTLE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER
20S AND MID 30S. A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NH BY
EARLY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NH THEN
OFF THE MAINE COAST NEAR PWM BY 06Z. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING
FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. UNLESS
THE LOW TRACK CHANGES, THE HIGHEST ACCUMS SHOULD FALL ALONG THE
CORRIDOR OF BEST MID LEVEL ASCENT WHICH SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NH EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ME. IT IS THERE WHERE
A STRIPE OF 1-3" OF SNOW FALLS WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS
POSSIBLY SEEING AS MUCH AS 4". ELSEWHERE, AMOUNTS SHOULD BE 2"
OR LESS. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NH INTO YORK COUNTY ME MAY NOT SEE
MUCH AT ALL, MOST LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY DEEPEN FAST ENOUGH SO THAT
IT THROWS BACK A BAND OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL TO THE COAST. SOME
CAMS STILL SHOW THIS POTENTIAL, SO WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS ON THE MIDCOAST SUNDAY
EVENING.
SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS ARE LIKELY FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE
EVEN THOUGH THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOULD HAVE ENDED BY THEN.
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS MONDAY LEAVING US WITH COLD AND
BREEZY WEATHER, BUT DRY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
OVERVIEW:
THE 500 MB PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US. A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SECOND IN THE SERIES LOOKS TO BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN SHOWS SIGNS OF
AMPLIFYING LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL.
IMPACTS:
*LIGHT SNOW WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DETAILS:
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF COLD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH
TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH TUESDAY WHILE STILL PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
HIGHS TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTH TO UPPER 20S ALONG
THE COAST. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THAT ENDS BEFORE THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
SNOWFALL GENERALLY A COATING TO 2 INCHES.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL BE QUICK TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY WITH A
SURFACE LOW TRACKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL CHANGE HOW MUCH
ABOVE FREEZING AIR IS ABLE TO WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE THE MOUNTAIN AND NORTH LIKELY STAY COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. THE LATEST NBM HAS PRECIPITATION STARTING
AS SNOW BEFORE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE PUSHES INLAND TO THE FOOTHILLS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE COLLAPSING BACK TO
THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT ON THE
ORDER OF 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES WHICH COULD AMOUNT TO A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH
OF THE FOOTHILLS DUE TO CHANGING TO RAIN.
THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL DEEPEN LATE IN THE WEEK
WHILE THERE IS LIMITED SIGNAL FOR ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EVENTS. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP IN SPOTS VERY
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD BE DISSIPATED BY A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH PRIOR TO DAWN. OTHER THAN SOME FOG, EXPECT
CEILINGS TO BE VFR THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THEN INVADE WITH QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO BRING -SN TO REDUCE VIS TO 1 TO 2
MILES OVERNIGHT. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 10Z
MON FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF PSM/CON/LEB LINE.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING AT LEAST THE CHANCES FOR MVFR WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM CROSSES LATE
WEDNESDAY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM KLEB TO KAUG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF AT LEAST MVFR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. QUICK MOVING LOW PRES ENTERS THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, INCREASING WINDS TO AROUND 30 KTS. SOME GUSTS TO GALE
MAY BE ATTAINABLE ON THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY MORNING, AND A GALE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED HERE. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR CASCO AND WESTERN PENOBSCOT BAY ALONG WITH THE OUTER WATERS
SOUTH OF PORTLAND.
LONG TERM...NW WINDS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEEK SYSTEMS CROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH WINDS LIKELY BRINGING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ151-
153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ154.
NEAR TERM...TUBBS/EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL/EKSTER
LONG TERM...SCHROETER
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