930
FXUS61 KGYX 111142
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
642 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
AIRMASS BUILDS IN MONDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
640 AM UPDATE...COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE NOW WITH WINDS
STEADILY INCREASING IT ITS WAKE. VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THE
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THEME, WITH OCCASIONAL WESTERLY GUSTS OF
25-40 MPH THAT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME POWER OUTAGES.
PREVIOUSLY...
VORTICITY MAX IS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...AND
THAT IS ALLOWING PRECIP TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT
DOES SO. THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IN THE
INTENSITY OF PRECIP...AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BOTH ARE
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL WE ARE LARGELY DRY OUTSIDE OF UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS. HOWEVER TEMPS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND FREEZING...AND
ICY ROADS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
UPPER TROF AXIS CROSSES THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY AND THAT IS
WHEN THE REAL COLD ADVECTION BEGINS. MIXING DEPTHS INCREASE AND
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY TAPPING 40 TO 45 KT WESTERLY WINDS.
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT SEEM TOTALLY REASONABLE GIVEN THAT
FORECAST...BUT THE NBM GUIDANCE WAS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. I
BLENDED IN SOME HRRR AND 90TH PERCENTILE WIND/GUST GUIDANCE TO
BUMP THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
WITH THE WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
ONGOING...I ALSO ADDED SOME FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. I DO NOT THINK THIS IS THE TYPE OF SET UP FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO REMAIN STUCK ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE MTNS. SO
WHILE ACCUMULATION IS NOT LIKELY...THERE SHOULD BE SOME FLAKES
IN THE AIR INTO THE FOOTHILLS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND ALONG WITH IT GUSTY WINDS LINGER
THRU THE OVERNIGHT. NBM FORECAST LOOKS FINE ON THAT FRONT...AS
EVEN IN WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENTS THE WINDS TEND TO NOT GUST QUITE
AS HIGH OVERNIGHT. EVEN STILL WIND CHILLS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. FRI WILL SEE THE MIXING AND SUBSEQUENT
GUSTS TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE WE SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF 30+ KT GUSTS DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALLOWING GUSTY
WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND BRINGING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A SHEARED OUT
SHORT WAVE WILL PASS NEAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD SHOT
FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO MID WEEK AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE PATTERN TURNS ZONAL FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
WEST WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST SATURDAY WHILE PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE 20S NORTH TO THE 30S NEAR THE COAST. A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
WILL SPREAD SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THAT MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION.
A MORE ROBUST TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY. THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BEST FORCING TO BE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. WHILE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WITH THE LOW PASSES SOUTH, THERE WILL MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT
BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES MONDAY THAT WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEK AS THE PACIFIC JET STRENGTHENS INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MILDER PACIFIC AIR ACROSS THE
CONUS THAT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY POCKETS OF IFR OR
LOWER REMAIN AND THIS WILL CLEAR OUT AS WELL ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO
A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP AN MVFR CIG AROUND HIE
AND MAYBE AS FAR SOUTH AS LEB. MORE WIDESPREAD WILL BE THE GUSTY
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE GUSTS
OF 30 TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HIE...BUT
EVEN THERE SHOULD BE IN EXCESS OF 25 KT. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE
INTO FRI.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS. A RETURN TO VFR IS
LIKELY MONDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS STARTING TO MOVE
EAST OF THE WATERS NOW ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO TEMPORARILY
DIMINISH. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS HOWEVER. THEN COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN AND WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. GALES ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL
WATERS AND MAY BE STRONG OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS. THOSE STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THRU THE REST OF THE
DAY.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SUBISIDE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY BY SATURDAY MORNING LASTING INTO SUNDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THESE WINDS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ151-153.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...EKSTER/LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SCHROETER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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