770
FXUS61 KGYX 112346
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
646 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
IT WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, MAKING IT FEEL
MUCH COLDER THAN THE THERMOMETER READS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SNOW
SHOWERS OFF AND ON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.
FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MOUNTAIN
SNOWS. THAT WILL ONLY COME TO AN END AS A COASTAL STORM PASSES
WELL OUT TO SEA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
COME CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE COAST, BUT
WILL MOST LIKELY STAY WELL ENOUGH AWAY. THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED UP
BY ANOTHER VERY COLD AND GUSTY MONDAY. EXPECT THE WIND CHILLS
TO REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
630 PM UPDATE:
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST SNOW SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE
OTHER THAN TO BLEND IN OBSERVATIONS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
FIELDS TO THE GOING FORECAST.
PREVIOUSLY:
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS KEEPS
GUSTY WINDS ONGOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH ANY FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF
THE MOUNTAINS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
COLD TEMPS RETURN TONIGHT, WITH TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. COMBINED WITH THE WIND, WIND CHILLS DROP
BELOW ZERO IN MOST SPOTS, WITH NEGATIVE TEEN READINGS ACROSS THE
NORTH.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW, BUT BREEZY AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH, TO THE 20S MOST
PLACES ELSEWHERE, AND NEAR 30 RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS EASE TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED IN MOST SPOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS COOL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT WIND
CHILLS WON'T BE MUCH COOLER THAN TEMPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE: GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND PRECIP AS WELL AS
BREEZY THRU THE EXTENDED.
IMPACTS: MON LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER COLD AND GUSTY DAY WITH WIND
CHILLS STAYING BELOW 15 DEGREES FOR THE DAY. IT IS A SMALLER
CHANCE BUT A STORM PASSING OUT TO SEA MAY BE ABLE TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST DETAILS: LATE SAT INTO SUN A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL RIDE THE BAROCLINIC ZONES AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG
THE PATH. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IS NOT LIKELY IN THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHIFT TO BRING SOME SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL WESTERN MAINE. DESI CLUSTER ANALYSIS
DOES SHOW HOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD HELP TO BRING HIGHER
QPF AND THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NORTH. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THAT
IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. BUT THIS
DOES REPRESENT A REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO...SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
OTHERWISE IT WILL RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND THAT
TROF AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ARRIVES. MON SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPS STAY IN THE 20S SOUTH OF THE MTNS YET AGAIN. THE BULK OF
THE ANOMALOUS COLD WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH THOUGH AS WE START TO
APPROACH OUR COLDEST TIME OF THE YEAR. NAEFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE AIR MASS IS A ONCE A YEAR TYPE EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO COLD BUT NOT EXTREME. HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO BE GUSTY
COUPLED WITH THE COLD...SO DAYTIME WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
AFTER MON THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY BE CONTROL BY HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL AND PRECIP BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER BEYOND THAT EXTENDED
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO SHOW AN ACTIVE PERIOD COMING UP.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR PREVAILS THROUGH TOMORROW IN MOST SPOTS,
EXCEPT HIE WHERE MVFR CEILINGS LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 25-30KT GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20KT LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU MIDWEEK. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THAT NORTH OF THE MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE LOCAL
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL
CONTINUE OFF AND ON. THE OTHER WILL BE ALONG THE COAST SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AND IF IT OCCURS AREAS OF
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS COULD BE EXPECTED. MON WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY AND WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 KT OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WESTERLY GALES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SCA CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING, AND THEN CONTINUE TO SLOW EASE TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM...IT WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET ON THE COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUN. SOME OF THAT LIGHT SNOW MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
THAT IS UNTIL MON WHEN IT BECOMES GUSTY AGAIN. A PERIOD OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS IS POSSIBLE...AND THIS MAY INCLUDE THE BAYS AS WELL.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN GUSTY THRU MIDWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
NEAR TERM...HARGROVE/CLAIR
SHORT TERM...CLAIR
LONG TERM...LEGRO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page