788
FXUS61 KGYX 121727
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1227 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. A COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL OUT TO SEA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT MAY BEG CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHERN NH. THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED UP
BY ANOTHER VERY COLD AND GUSTY MONDAY. EXPECT THE WIND CHILLS TO
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT. SO I ANTICIPATE WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY INTO THE EVENING...GENERALLY 30 TO 35 MPH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS...BEFORE DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER SEES WINDS DROP
OFF SHARPLY BY MIDNIGHT. ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT WILL STILL EXIST
THAT I DO NOT THINK WE WILL EXPERIENCE PERFECT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE
DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
SAT WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY IN THE WEATHER. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THRU THE REGION AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS ENOUGH LOW TO MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THAT I COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
SQUEEZING OUT OF THE AIR MASS. THE NBM DOES SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POP WORKING ITS WAY THRU THE FORECAST AREA...SO I DID
NOT SEE ANY NEED TO ALTER THAT DEPICTION. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND MUCH LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS ALONG
WITH TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH AND
COASTAL WESTERN MAINE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A POSITIVELY-TILTED 500MB TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO FORM OUT TO SEA BUT STILL MAY BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY FOR THERE TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE SOUTH OF
THE FOOTHILLS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT THE HIGHER CHANCES (30-40%) ARE ALONG THE COAST
AND SOUTHERN NH. ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN AN INCH, BUT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 3"
COULD OCCUR ALONG THE COAST IF THE LOW TRACKS A BIT FARTHER
NORTH.
ONCE THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST, IT'S FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER
THE MARITIMES, WHICH WILL BRING MORE BREEZY AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THEN REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
POSSIBLY BRING LIGHT PRECIP TO PARTS OF THE AREA.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FROM MID TO LATE WEEK
ON ANOTHER COUPLE OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FIRST WILL BE AROUND WEDNESDAY, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
FAVORS THE LOW TRACK WELL NORTH US TO MAYBE ONLY BRING LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING
SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES (MAYBE HIGHS IN THE 40S WEDS-THURS?).
THE SECOND SYSTEM HAS A BETTER SIGNAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK...SO BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU SAT. UPSLOPE
CLOUD COVER ARE KEEPING MVFR CIGS IN AND AROUND HIE...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY SURFACE GUSTS UP TO
30 KT ARE EXPECTED THRU THE EVENING HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT HIE...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL REDUCE MIXING DEPTHS. WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY SAT AND WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. I
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SNOW SHOWER DURING THE DAY SAT AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES THRU THE REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN ANY TAF AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CEILINGS TO THE SOUTHERN NH AND
COASTAL TERMINALS SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF THE
LIGHT SNOW DOES OCCUR, MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR VISIBILITIES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING VFR THROUGH MONDAY ASIDE
FROM UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AROUND HIE. ANOTHER COUPLE OF WEAK
SYSTEMS MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE REGION MON
NIGHT-TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS LOOK UNLIKELY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...GALES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS INTO THIS EVENING BUT
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO SAT. THE BAYS
WILL DROP TO SCA CONDITIONS AND EVENTUALLY BELOW THIS
EVENING...AND THE OUTER WATERS WILL SEE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE SCA CONDITIONS LINGER INTO SAT.
LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY BUT ARE MORE LIKELY
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASES AS THE
LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THERE MAY ALSO BE A
PERIOD OF GALES AS WELL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES AROUND WEDNESDAY, LIKELY BRING
AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY GALES. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS THEN POSSIBLE TOWARD LATE WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151-153.
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...COMBS
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