208
FXUS61 KGYX 130540
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1240 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL OUT TO SEA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT
MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED UP BY
ANOTHER VERY COLD MONDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT THE WIND
CHILLS TO REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A RIDGE
AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS LIKELY DONT
GO COMPLETELY CALM IN MOST SPOTS UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE, IF AT ALL.
AT THE SAME TIME, CLOUDS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD FROM THE WEST,
WHICH LIMITS THE RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY, AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND A MORE BROAD TROUGH. THIS BRINGS
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO BRING SOME INTERMITTENT
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A
LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE MIDCOAST OFF THE OCEAN,
SO A STEADIER BURST OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRING UP TO ABOUT A HALF
INCH HERE. OTHER THAN SIMILARLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW, AND BEGINS TO DEVELOP INTO A STRONG OCEAN STORM AS IT
MOVES OUT TO SEA. CLOUDS FROM THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM KEEPS TEMPS
WARMER TONIGHT, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
ALONG THE COAST, JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO BRING SOME PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A
COATING EXPECTED. THERE IS ALSO A DECENT CHANCE THAT THIS
MOISTURE REMAINS ENTIRELY OFFSHORE, SO WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR
JUST HOW FAR WEST THE MOISTURE ACTUALLY EXTENDS AS THE SYSTEM IS
DEVELOPING.
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT TO SEA AND STRENGTHEN, AN
INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TOMORROW. THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN ON
THIS NORTHERLY WIND TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 20S
TO NEAR 30. TEMPS STEADILY FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE CAA INCREASES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE NEXT SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR PUSHES IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, LEADING TO
FRIGID TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE DAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO MAINLY RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH, TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
SOUTH. STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD BELOW
ZERO WIND CHILLS MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME DOUBLE DIGIT READINGS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME LOW PROBABILITY SNOW CHANCES MAY
HANG AROUND INTO MONDAY MORNING NEAR THE COAST AND THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME.
IT SHOULD STAY COLD AND WINDY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY RISING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH, TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH. WITH WINDS REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH
THE DAY, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
ONLY RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE MOST ELSEWHERE.
TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY BUT WITH LESS
WIND. THE WARMUP THEN BEGINS IN EARNEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
HIGHS RISE INTO UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S NORTH, TO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S SOUTH. BY THURSDAY, THE NBM HAS FORECAST HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 30 NORTH, TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME SIGNALS IN THE LONG TERM ENSEMBLES THAT THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES COULD EXTEND INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES, A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MID-WEEK. A STRONGER SYSTEM WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS POSSIBLE TO END
THE WORK WEEK BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM...MVFR CEILINGS LINGER AT HIE THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BUT WOULD LIKELY ONLY BRING BRIEF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS. LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW SITES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY ASIDE FROM
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AROUND HIE. ANOTHER COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS
MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LOOK
UNLIKELY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EASE THROUGH DAYBREAK. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A DEVELOPING
OCEAN STORM TRACKS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW, WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO SCA LEVELS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF GALES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
CROSSES MID WEEK, LIKELY BRING AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS AND
POSSIBLY GALES. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS THEN POSSIBLE LATE IN
THE WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
NEAR TERM...CLAIR
SHORT TERM...CLAIR
LONG TERM...HARGROVE
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