268
FXUS61 KGYX 131746
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1246 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT
BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND
SOUTHERN NH. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ABOVE NORMAL THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A WEAK WAVE ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUING LIFTING NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW. MOST OF THE AREA COULD SEE FLAKES, BUT FAVORED AREAS FOR
A DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE THE MIDCOAST AND ACROSS THE NORTH, EXCEPT
MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 10S AND 20S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. HOWEVER, THE MAIN
FOCUS REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
500MB TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND A LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE. THERE'S STILL DISCREPANCIES AMONG
MODEL GUIDANCE AS TO WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, BUT THE HIGHER CHANCES
REMAINS CROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL ME AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH
AS THE FOOTHILLS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE SWITCHING TO W/WNW OVERNIGHT,
AND THAT MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SOME UPSLOPE SNOWS IN THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND MAYBE EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST BEFORE A PUSH OF DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW
FROM UPSLOPING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NH AND ME COAST COULD SEE UP
TO AN INCH. EVEN WITH THESE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, THERE STILL
COULD BE SLICK ROADWAYS.
WINDS ALSO BECOME BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
A COLD NIGHT IS AHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
WITH SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE SINGLES DIGITS TO 10S, BUT WITH THE WINDS MOST OF THE AREA
WILL LIKELY SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. A CHANCE
FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
OVERVIEW:
THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER HAS BEEN MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL AND
THIS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. AN ONSLAUGHT OF PACIFIC STORMS INTO THE PACIFIC NW
WILL CONTINUE THE BREAK DOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE THIS WEEK
RESULTING IN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY MID WEEK AND MAY SPEND
A FEW DAYS ABOVE NORMAL INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A STORM
TRACK THAT FAVORS SNOW/MIX TO RAIN EVENTS.
KEY MESSAGES:
*ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY.
*LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BRINGING
SNOW/WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH AND MAINLY RAIN SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST DETAILS:
A TROUGH SWINGS OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM TEENS
NORTH TO 20 SOUTH AND WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH THE WIND CHILL
WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURE. A
WEAK WAVE APPROACHING FROM SE CANADA ALONG WITH WEAK WAA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER AND THE START OF A WARMING TREND. LOW PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE PATTERN BRIEFLY BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPAWN AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKS WEST OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SE CANADA. THE
LACK OF COLD ANTECEDENT AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
MAINLY IN THE FOR OF RAIN SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPES BECOME MORE TRICKY ACROSS THE NORTH
AS SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST COLD AIR QUICKLY WRAPS INTO THE
SYSTEM AS THE LOW OCCLUDES AND OTHERS HINT AT PRESSURE FALLS
OFFSHORE. AT THIS TIME RANGE THESE FINER DETAILS WILL TAKE A FEW
DAYS TO IRON OUT. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FROM LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY AT HIE AND LEB.
TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY, SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL
TERMINALS MAY SEE MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS FROM LIGHT SNOW.
MAINLY VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING BREEZY ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KT, POSSIBLY AS HIGH
AS 30 KT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
HIE DUE TO AN ONGOING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS AT KHIE MONDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE VFR INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, BUT
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO MOST OF SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS THEN RETURN SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE. GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 KTS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TUESDAY. SW
WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MAY APPROACH
GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. WINDS BRIEFLY TURN OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH LATE
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
153.
NEAR TERM...COMBS
SHORT TERM...COMBS
LONG TERM...SCHROETER
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