895
FXUS61 KGYX 141149
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
649 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
645 AM UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MAINE COASTAL PLAIN. THE
NORTHERN NH MOUNTAINS ARE GETTING INTO IT AS WELL. WHILE THE
SNOW IS LIGHT IN INTENSITY THERE ARE OCCASIONAL TRANSIENT BANDS
THAT ARE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATORS. HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS BY
A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH IN SOME AREAS JUST INLAND FRONT THE
COAST AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NH. ROADS WILL BE
SLIPPERY.
PREVIOUSLY...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET
THIS MORNING AS AN H5 S/WV TROF SWINGS EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. A SFC TROF IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE ME COAST THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING S/WV, AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN ME SOUTH OF THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS NH,
MAINLY FROM THE LAKES REGION AND POINTS SOUTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED -12C TO -18C LAYER
WITH DECENT CROSS HAIR OMEGA WITHIN THIS LAYER FOR A FEW HOURS
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. DESPITE LOW QPF OF GENERALLY A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS, SNOW- LIQUID RATIOS (SLRS) OF BETWEEN 12-15:1
WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE BETWEEN
1-2" OF SNOW WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. GIVEN
THE COLD ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND ROAD TEMPERATURES, THIS COULD
RESULT IN LOCALLY SLIPPERY TRAVEL TODAY.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH READINGS INTO THE 20S/LOWER
30S. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO ~25 MPH, WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
TONIGHT WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS AND TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN BORDER.
ON MONDAY H8S WILL FALL TO AROUND -15C, WHICH DESPITE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE TEENS AND
20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WINDCHILL VALUES WILL BE INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY
MORNING LOWS BUT WITH LESS WIND. THE WARMUP THEN BEGINS IN EARNEST
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS RISE INTO UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
NORTH, TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S SOUTH. BY THURSDAY, THE NBM
HAS FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH, TO THE LOW
TO MID 40S SOUTH. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SIGNALS IN THE LONG TERM
ENSEMBLES THAT THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD EXTEND INTO FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES, A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW MID-WEEK. A STRONGER (BUT PROGRESSIVE) SYSTEM WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT. AS OF NOW, IMPACT WOULD
LIKELY BE MINIMAL GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...-SN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS AT
TIMES BETWEEN 04Z-18Z TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
LONG TERM...OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS AT KHIE MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE VFR INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...GALE FORCE NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 1-3 FT IN
THE BAYS WITH 3-5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
LONG TERM...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 KTS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TUESDAY. SW WINDS INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. WINDS BRIEFLY
TURN OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...EKSTER/TUBBS
SHORT TERM...TUBBS
LONG TERM...HARGROVE/SCHROETER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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