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FXUS61 KGYX 150006
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
706 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SNOW NEAR THE COAST ENDING THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
700 PM UPDATE... LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AT THIS HOUR ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ME AND EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NH, MAINLY FROM THE MANCHESTER-NASHUA CORRIDOR AND
POINTS EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL
PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS BEFORE
DRIFTING OFFSHORE WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH UNDER 1" OF
ACCUMULATION IN MOST LOCATIONS BUT SOME LINGERING SLIPPERY
TRAVEL IS LIKELY.
PREVIOUSLY...
SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING THIS MORNING, WITH MOST PLACES REPORTING
NEAR 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR. THE SNOW IS COMING FROM A LOW
CURRENTLY OFFSHORE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE. AT
THIS POINT, THINGS ARE STARTING TO WRAP UP BUT UP TO ANOTHER
INCH OR SO COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND THE COASTAL
PLAIN AS A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ENHANCES INSTABILITY BEHIND THE
LOW.
TONIGHT, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KICK BACK UP AGAIN AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
CHILLY. HOWEVER, THE PERSISTENT LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND AT NIGHT
WILL PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD
TO A BLUSTERY AND COLD NIGHT TONIGHT, BUT LOWS WILL STAY ABOVE
0F FOR THE MOST PART. LOOKING AT LOWER SINGLE-DIGITS ACROSS THE
NORTH, WITH LOWER TEENS ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TO START THE DAY ON
MONDAY. TRANQUIL BUT CLOUDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A COLD AIRMASS OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY
MAKE MONDAY A COLD AND BLUSTERY ONE. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR MOST.
TROUGHING CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. RADIATIONAL COOLING IS POSSIBLE WITH MOSTLY CALM
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
OVERVIEW:
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO START TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE MOST ROBUST SYSTEM WILL CROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER LIKELY BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TURN COLDER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW.
KEY MESSAGES:
*A RAIN ON SNOW EVENT IS LOOKING LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THE DURATION OF SNOW MELT.
FORECAST DETAILS:
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 20S NORTH TO 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERN AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOW 40S.
WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW/WINTRY MIX IN
THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE MAINLY RAIN OVERSPREADS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY
THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANGING TO A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE GENERALLY
0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES FOR RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE WINDOW
FOR SNOW MELT WILL BE AROUND 12 HOURS. THIS SHOULD KEEP HYDRO
ISSUES AT A MINIMUM, WHILE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY
SIGNAL OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
MORE WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING POTENTIAL
FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. RESTRICTIONS LIFT OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. SOME LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
MORNING BUT VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TOMORROW AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING MAINLY RAIN
AND LIKELY PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL
ALSO BRING THE THREAT OF LLWS THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS A
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS. THESE WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN TO GALE FORCE WINDS BY THIS EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY, WITH
WESTERLY WINDS OF 12-21KTS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 4-7FT FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOW SCA THRESHOLDS TUESDAY.
SW WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS TURN BRIEFLY
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL APPROACH
GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
NEAR TERM...PALMER/TUBBS
SHORT TERM...PALMER
LONG TERM...SCHROETER
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