194
FXUS61 KGYX 150536
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1236 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. COLDER
AIR WILL RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS AN H5 S/WV TROF
AXIS SWINGS OVERHEAD WHILE A SFC RIDGE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVG WITH T8S AROUND -17C. THIS WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LOWER
TO MIDDLE 20S SOUTH. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH LIKELY. THIS WILL KEEP WINDCHILL
VALUES TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. THE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MTNS WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LIKELY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST OVERHEAD TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
DECREASING WINDS. THIS COMBINED WITH AT LEAST SOME CLEAR
PERIODS, AND THE SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
OTHER THAN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER, ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS
RIDGING REMAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON AVG 5-10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY AS WAA ALOFT BEGINS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE: AFTER A COLD START TO THE MONTH BY MIDWEEK IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL HAVE OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
SINCE THANKSGIVING. THAT WILL COME WITH RAIN...THOUGH AMOUNTS DO NOT
SEEM LIKE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS.
IMPACTS: WILL HAVE TO WATCH LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND WHETHER A MORE
INLAND ROUTE COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE COAST. OTHERWISE SNOW
MELT/RUNOFF WILL BE THE BIGGEST THING TO WATCH.
FORECAST DETAILS: STARTING MIDWEEK DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP OVER THE AREA. THE INCOMING WARMTH WILL BRING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FORECAST AREA...MANY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN AT LEAST TWO
WEEKS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SEASONABLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...SO IT
MAY BE HARD TO AVOID THE WARM AIR AT THIS POINT. THE QUESTION WILL
BE JUST HOW WARM. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE NOTORIOUSLY SKETCHY...BUT THE
LACK OF A STRONG...ANCHORING HIGH TO THE NORTH SUGGESTS THAT THE
WARMER SOLUTIONS MAY BE MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. THE NBM HOURLY TEMPS
LOOKED FINE FOR THIS RANGE OF THE FORECAST...BUT THE MIN TEMPS
ESPECIALLY SEEMED TOO COOL. I OPTED TO PICK THE COLDEST HOURLY TEMPS
OUT FOR THE LOW TEMPS INSTEAD...WHICH DID BRING THEM UP
SIGNIFICANTLY. IN MOST CASES THAT IS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT.
WITH THIS OCCURRING OVER A COUPLE DAYS THAT SHOULD RIPEN UP THE
SNOW...ESPECIALLY AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S AND RAIN
SHOWERS MOVE IN THU NIGHT. BETWEEN THE DEWPOINTS...WINDS...AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SNOW IS LEFT BY
THE WEEKEND SOUTH OF THE MTNS.
USING DESI CLUSTER ANALYSIS THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS WERE AT OR
BELOW THE ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF. HOWEVER THERE ARE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
OF MEMBERS THAT ARE CLOSE TO 1 INCH MEAN QPF...GENERALLY A
RESULT OF STRONGER DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. THAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
MODELING TREND TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30
KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL EASE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SW ON
TUESDAY AT 10-15 KTS. NO LLWS IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WED ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO
WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER BY THU. GIVEN THE FORECAST OF
WARMER/MOIST AIR SURGING NORTH OVER THE COLD SNOWPACK...LOW
CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL BE IN PLACE
BY THU...SO ANY CHANGE IN SURFACE WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN
LLWS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...GALE FORCE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT. ACROSS
THE BAYS, NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY WITH SEAS OF 2-4
FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SW ON
TUESDAY AT 10-15 KTS. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM...ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OR POSSIBLE GALES ARE
EXPECTED WED AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS START TO INCREASE. BY
THU GALES BECOME MORE LIKELY...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS IN THE STRONGER STORM SYSTEM SCENARIOS.
IN ADDITION WARM/MOIST AIR MOVING OVER COLDER NEARSHORE WATERS
MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THIS TIME. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS
FOR SAT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUN SO WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE WATERS FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
NEAR TERM...TUBBS
SHORT TERM...TUBBS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
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