482
FXUS61 KGYX 151826
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
126 PM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SETTLES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG
WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A BREEZY MORNING WAS EXPERIENCED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS LOOK TO TREND
CALMER THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO LOOSEN
AND AND PRESSURE RISES GRADUALLY. A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING. CALM WINDS MAY TRIGGER SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IN
SPOTS WITH CLEARER SKIES, THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION WILL MAKE THIS INEFFICIENT AND WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TEENS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, A STRAY SNOW SHOWER
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE STEMMING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AN H5 RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES IN TUESDAY MORNING, AND SHOULD HELP
WARM THE ENTIRE THERMAL COLUMN. THIS, IN ADDITION TO CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR A SUNNY, BLUEBIRD DAY ON
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES MARKEDLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING RECENTLY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE
MID-20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EVEN INTO THE MID-30S ALONG THE
COAST.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES NEW ENGLAND TO
THE NORTH. LOWS SHOULD BE WARMER AS WELL, WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOWER
20S EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
OVERVIEW: A COLD FRONT WILL SCRAPE NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
ALLOWING THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENE
ACROSS QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF
RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT CROSSES. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANGES FOR
LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES:
*RAIN ON SNOW IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO FLOOD
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO ANTECEDENT LOW RIVER FLOWS AND
FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SOME POOR DRAINAGE/PONDING OF
WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
*SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD GUST UP TO 40 MPH
ALONG THE COAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
FORECAST DETAILS:
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP SW FLOW
LEADING TO TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY WITH WARMER AIR MARCHING
BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL REACH THE MID
30S NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THE LATEST AVAILABLE NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF JAMES BAY DEEPENS. A ROBUST SSW LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND NOON FRIDAY WITH WINDS AT 925 MB APPROACHING 60 KTS.
BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST THE ORIENTATION OF THE LLJ AND A SHALLOW
INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THESE WINDS MIXING TO THE
SURFACE WITH PEAK GUSTS FORECAST AROUND 40 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
30-35 MPH INLAND. PWATS WILL CLIMB TO OVER 1 INCH, WHICH WILL BE 2-3
STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEN RAIN BREAKS OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGH PWATS WILL FAVOR BOUTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF GENERALLY AROUND 0.75
INCHES. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH ANTICIPATED SNOW MELT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO LEAD TO ANY FLOODING OTHER THAN POOR
DRAINAGE ISSUES FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE FREEZING INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK INTO NORTHERN ZONES ALLOWING RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS FRIDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WEST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A CLIPPER SYSTEM RACES ACROSS SE CANADA
SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM...NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS
EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING IN HIE.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS THICKEN
AND LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY BRINGING
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A SSW LLJ WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LLWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
WESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING. SEAS OF 4-
7FT ARE EXPECTED, DIMINISHING TO 2-4FT BY TOMORROW MORNING. WESTERLY
SUB-SCA WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY, AND STRENGTHEN
TUESDAY EVENING. SEAS OF 2-4FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY,
WITH STRENGTHENING SEAS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, GALE FORCE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND SEAS COULD
BE AS HIGH AS 6-10FT.
LONG TERM...SW WINDS WILL GUST TO GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF MAINE. WINDS AND SEAS DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS RAMP UP LATE THURSDAY
WITH GALES LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS SHIFT
WESTERLY BEHIND A FRONT THAT CROSSES FRIDAY EVENING WITH
WESTERLY GALES LIKELY INTO SATURDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
NEAR TERM...PALMER
SHORT TERM...PALMER
LONG TERM...SCHROETER
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