925
FXUS61 KGYX 161144
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
644 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH WILL DRAW IN WARMER AIR AND BRING MANY IN THE REGION THEIR
FIRST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE THANKSGIVING. A WEAK
AND MOSTLY DRY FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY, AND
THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS REALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY MAY CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
RAINFALL IS LIKELY EVEN INTO THE MOUNTAINS. IT DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE HEAVY ENOUGH OR LONG ENOUGH TO WIPE OUT ALL OF THE SNOW, BUT
IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE WINDY FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER THAT
THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. WE GET THE
BRIEFEST OF BREAKS ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
640AM UPDATE...OVERCAST HAS BEEN RESILIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NH EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE DRYING
IN THE LEE OF MTNS FOR WESTERN ME. WILL LIKELY SEE THESE
OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE BETTER
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH. CAN'T RULE OUT A FLAKE OR TWO IN WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NH AS LIGHT RADAR RETURNS TRACK IN FROM NY/VT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE H5 PATTERN BEGINS TO
FLATTEN WITH SFC RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN MONDAY THOUGH AS T8S WARM TO AROUND +12C, WHICH
WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. IT WILL ALSO BE LESS WINDY AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY, SO IT WON'T FEEL AS COLD.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL PRIMARILY BE INTO THE TEENS.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ACCOMPANIED S/WV TROF BEGINS TO APPROACH WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THOUGH EXCEPT FOR A FEW SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER WITH READINGS INTO THE
30S TO LOWER 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
DRY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LOWS INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
STORM SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY THOUGH ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH RAIN EXPECTED FRI BUT TRENDING
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY
GUSTY ON FRI AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
IMPACTS: WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT ENOUGH FOR FLOODING CONCERNS...SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS ARE STARTING TO LOOKING MORE ROBUST. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
RAMP UP...AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FRI.
FORECAST DETAILS: A SHARP..NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF WILL SWING ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST FRI. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST IS TRENDING TOWARDS A
FASTER MOVING BUT POTENTIALLY HARD HITTING FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE HARD HITTING MAY COME IN THE FORM OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
RAMP THE LOW LEVEL JET WITH TIME. NAEFS RETURN PERIOD GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE LATEST RUN HAS A ROUGHLY ONCE EVERY 10 YEAR SOUTHERLY
850 MB JET. ADDITIONALLY THE ECMWF EFI SITS AT 80 TO 90 PERCENT AT
THIS TIME...MEANING THAT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT WIND GUST EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF
THE MTNS. THE TREND OF THAT FORECAST IS ALSO NOTABLE...AS IT HAS
SHOWED A STEADY RUN TO RUN INCREASE IN MEMBERS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
WIND GUSTS. BASED ON LOCAL RESEARCH THE FORECAST LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTH WOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 35 KT GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST. AT THIS TIME THE NBM FORECAST IS LOWER THAN 30 KT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...SO I AM LEANING TOWARDS BUMPING THOSE UP A GOOD 5 TO 10
KT ACROSS THE BOARD. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST UPDATES HAVE TO INCREASE WINDS FURTHER.
AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY FRI IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WET-
BULB COOLING MAY TEND TOWARDS AN IN-SITU COLD AIR DAM...BUT THERE IS
LITTLE PREVENTING THE WARM AIR FROM INVADING. BY MIDDAY FRI 925 MB
TEMPS APPROACHING +10C ARE FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARDS THE ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER. GIVEN THAT FORECAST I DO NOT SEE MUCH SNOW EVEN FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE MEAN QPF IS ALSO GENERALLY BELOW 1 INCH FOR THE EVENT GIVEN HOW
QUICKLY IT MOVES THRU THE REGION. DESI CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN...I.E. DEEPER TROF AND STRONGER
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING...WOULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD QPF AT OR ABOVE 1
INCH. AT THIS TIME THAT LOOKS LIKE ABOUT 1 IN 5 MEMBERS...SO A LOW
BUT NOT TOTALLY UNLIKELY CHANCE. OVERALL GIVEN THE FORECAST I THINK
THE SNOWPACK SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WHERE LOCATIONS HAVE MORE THAN 3 INCHES ON THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE THE EXTENDED LOOKS LIKE IT RETURNS TOWARDS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AFTER THIS SYSTEM BUT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE NBM BEYOND FRI.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS AT KHIE WHERE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS AND -SN.
OVERCAST SKIES HANG ON FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING, GENERALLY
THINNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
W-SW AT 10-15 KTS. APPROACHING LLJ THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
MAY BRING LLWS TO AT LEAST NORTHERN NH AND WESTERN ME TERMINALS.
LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRI AS
WARM AIR SURGES OVER THE COLD INTERIOR SNOWPACK. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE
THAT SOME DAYTIME FOG DEVELOPS. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE IFR CONDITIONS
MAY BE JUST NORTH OF THE WHITE MTNS WHERE DOWNSLOPING WINDS HELP TO
SCATTER OUT THE LOW CLOUDS...THIS INCLUDES HIE. ALSO NEAR THE COAST
IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY GUSTY. CONSERVATIVELY I AM THINKING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT. AT THIS TIME WINDS LOOK
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL THOUGH...SO MORE OF A TURBULENCE VS LLWS
SCENARIO. ONCE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AND
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN RATHER QUICKLY TO VFR...WITH MVFR CIGS
LINGERING THE MTNS. NARROW HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS VFR SAT...BUT
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES SUN. THIS LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW...SO AREAS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE IF THIS STAYS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO MOVE THRU THE FORECAST AREA.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SW GALES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT
CASCO BAY WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 6-10 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN
BRIEFLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN TOWARDS THURSDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE THRU FRI.
STRONG GALES ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORM FORCE GUSTS AS WELL IF
FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY LATE FRI BUT
REMAIN GUSTY...AND A PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
SAT. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF CONDITIONS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...SCAS
MAY DEVELOP AGAIN BEHIND A WARM FRONT SUN.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ150>152-154.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CORNWELL/TUBBS
SHORT TERM...TUBBS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...LEGRO/CORNWELL/TUBBS
MARINE...LEGRO/TUBBS
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