200
FXUS61 KGYX 161853
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
153 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TREKKING EAST THROUGH QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN SATURDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM
CROSSES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO PERIODS OF
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOWS
RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO MID 20S NORTH TO SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF MAINE WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
CLIPPING NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SKIES TURNING MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOW
40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SOME SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL
LEAD TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO MID 20S NORTH TO SOUTH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
OVERVIEW...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY, BRINGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH RAIN AND WIND. COOLER AIR
RETURNS SATURDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY, THEN ANOTHER CLIPPER IS POSSIBLE
BY LATE TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS BY LATE THIS WEEK, AND CONTINUES
INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY, SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRINGING WARM AIR BACK
TO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW WEEKS. HIGHS WARM
INTO THE 40S IN MOST SPOTS ON THURSDAY, WITH 30S MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTH.
AFTER AN INITIAL FALL BACK TO NEAR FREEZING THURSDAY EVENING,
TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN QUEBEC.
RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND A PERIOD OF STEADIER, AND AT
TIMES HEAVIER RAIN MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAYTIME AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO FALL BETWEEN 0.5-1.0IN
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 1.5-2.0IN ARE
MORE LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER COMPONENT OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS
LOOK TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT, AND PEAK DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY. WITHOUT THE SYSTEM
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED, THE FULL WIND POTENTIAL LOOKS
UNLIKELY TO MATERIALIZE WITH THIS SYSTEM. EVEN STILL, WIND GUSTS
OF AT LEAST 40-50 MPH LOOK LIKELY ALONG THE COAST, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE MIDCOAST AND INTO THE
KENNEBEC VALLEY.
WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT OF A
TRIPLE POINT LOW FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAY SERVE TO DISRUPT THE
STRONGEST FLOW WEST OF THE LOW, WHILE ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO
THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS FACTOR LOOKS TO BE THE LARGEST
POINT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINING WITH THE EVENT OVERALL.
COLDER AIR QUICKLY RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT, FREEZING UP ANY
REMAINING WATER AND SLUSH LEFT OVER FROM FRIDAY. A SEASONABLE
AND BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
CROSSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWFALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC, LIKELY PLACING NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE STORM
TRACK FOR WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH
COLDER AIR. WHILE IT'S STILL A WEEK AWAY, NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LOOKS TO BE PLACED NEAR THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH, AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH.
THIS WOULD BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND PRECIP
NEXT WEEK, AND LIKELY AN OSCILLATION BETWEEN THE TWO AIRMASSES
THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME LOW CIGS
AND RASNSH WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS AT KHIE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM...VFR PREVAILS THURSDAY, THEN IFR TO LIFR IS LIKELY
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH RAIN, LOW CEILINGS, AND
FOG. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30-40KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST AND AT HIE, WITH 20- 30KT GUSTS POSSIBLE INLAND FRIDAY.
VFR RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT TO MOST TERMINALS, WITH MVFR MORE
LIKELY AT LEB AND HIE WITH UPSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS. MVFR TO IFR
IS THEN POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW MOVES THROUGH
AT LEAST NORTHERN TERMINALS. VFR LIKELY RETURNS FOR MONDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH QUEBEC AND A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH
INTO THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL GUST TO GALE FORCE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY GALES ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WITH STORM
FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. WESTERLY GALES ARE THEN POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A CLIPPER TRACKS
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY, WITH A PERIOD OF
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES POSSIBLE FROM THIS SYSTEM. A BRIEF LULL WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH IS POSSIBLE MONDAY, BEFORE THE
NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES ON TUESDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ANZ150>152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ153.
NEAR TERM...SCHROETER
SHORT TERM...SCHROETER
LONG TERM...CLAIR
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