428
FXUS61 KGYX 170600
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
100 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE AREA MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY. THAT WILL BE WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH FRIDAY AND GUSTS MAY BE
40 TO 50 MPH OR MORE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM, WITH READINGS APPROACHING
THE 50S FOR MANY AREAS. THIS MEANS THAT ALMOST ENTIRELY RAIN IS
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE ENOUGH RAIN AND SNOWMELT TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING CONCERNS. THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S BY MORNING. ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY, THIS
TIME IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
THE GRADUAL MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A
PASSING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MTNS AND
TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY
DAY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
-TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO WEATHER RELATED
IMPACTS.
-RAIN WITH STRONG TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
-MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG WITH RIVER RISES AND
RIVER ICE BREAKUP.
DISCUSSION:
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. MID-LVL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY INTO THE 40S.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
QUEBEC, SENDING A SFC WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND OVERNIGHT WITH
READINGS WARMING INTO THE 40S/LOWER 50S BY DAWN ON FRIDAY. PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS WE SIT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE A SHARP COLD FRONT
CROSSES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS
SUGGEST MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.50"-1.00" OF
RAINFALL, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY... ESPECIALLY IN
THE SE FACING TERRAIN. THIS RAIN COMBINED WITH ANTICIPATED SNOW
MELT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS SOME ICE
BREAKUP BUT OTHER THAN SOME MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING FROM
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS/LOW SPOTS, NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.
STRONG TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS THE MAIN THING TO WATCH
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A STOUT S-SE LLJ ARRIVES NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 50-60 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-COAST WITH 40-50 MPH ELSEWHERE. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES, WHICH WOULD ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS. GIVEN THIS
POTENTIAL, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR KNOX,
LINCOLN, AND COASTAL WALDO COUNTIES AS THIS IS WHERE CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IS FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE: A RETURN TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...BUT ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
IMPACTS: WESTERLY WINDS SAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUST UP TO 40
MPH OR HIGHER. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUN WITH A PASSING
WARM FRONT.
FORECAST DETAILS: FRI NIGHT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING BY SUNRISE. IF WE
CAN CLEAR OUT THAT MAY HELP FREEZE UP ANY STANDING WATER AND
LEAD TO SOME ICY SPOTS...BUT IT WILL ALSO BE INCREASINGLY GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THAT WILL HELP TO SPEED UP THE EVAPORATION.
EITHER WAY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON...BUT THANKFULLY GOING
INTO A WEEKEND AND LESS TRAVELING EXPECTED IN THE MORNING.
THAT COLD ADVECTION SAT WILL INCREASE MIXING DEPTHS WHILE LOW TO MID
LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 30 TO 40 KT CONTINUE AT THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. I ANTICIPATE THAT AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY IT WILL STAY GUSTY. THE NBM WINDS/GUSTS SEEM A LITTLE TOO
LOW...SO MY PREFERENCE IS TO BLEND IN SOME 75TH OR 90TH PERCENTILE
NBM TO BRING THEM UP.
A BRIEF RIDGE CROSSES THE REGION SAT...WITH THE NEXT WAVE
ARRIVING EARLY SUN. WARM ADVECTION THRU THE MID LEVELS WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU MIDDAY SUN. THERE IS LIFT AND
SATURATION IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME SOME PRETTY DRY NEAR SURFACE AIR. EITHER WAY A CHANCE
OF SNOW...TENDING TOWARDS LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SEEMS
FAIR AT THIS RANGE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE NBM FORECAST BESIDES
THE INCREASE IN WINDS/GUSTS EARLY SAT.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEB/HIE.
35-40KT LLWS THIS MORNING FOR MOST TERMINALS UNTIL DAYTIME
MIXING BEGINS AFTER 13/14Z. ANOTHER PERIOD OF LLWS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE MIXING SUBSIDES WITH WEAK SFC
INVERSION AGAIN DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL BECOME S ON THU WITH
WIDESPREAD RA MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS. GUSTY S-SE WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY ON FRI WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45-50 KTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. RA AND LOW
CEILINGS WILL ALSO PERSIST.
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR SAT...WITH MVFR CIGS
HANGING ON A LITTLE LONGER IN THE MTNS AROUND HIE. WESTERLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SAT BEFORE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS ALLOWS THEM TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN BUT THAT IS FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME DUE TO DRY SURFACE AIR.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...GALE FORCE SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT CASCO BAY WHERE GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 35 KTS. SEAS WILL BE AT 6-9 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS
WITH 1-4 FT IN THE BAYS. STORM FORCE S WINDS ARE THEN POSSIBLE
LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI ALONG WITH RAIN.
LONG TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY THRU SAT AND GALES WILL
CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THRU SUNRISE. WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT
OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WIND GUSTS BACK TO SCA THRESHOLDS
OUTSIDE THE BAYS SUN AND REMAIN GUSTY MON.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MEZ026>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ150>152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ153.
NEAR TERM...TUBBS
SHORT TERM...TUBBS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...LEGRO/TUBBS/CORNWELL
MARINE...LEGRO/TUBBS
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