757
FXUS61 KGYX 260521
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1221 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH LOOKS TO MOSTLY
MISS OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH, BUT LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE SATURDAY TONIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL STORM
ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A
MIXED BAG TO RAIN. WINDY AND COLD EARLY TO MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND
AS A RESULT IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HOWEVER, THE GOOD PART IS
THAT THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE THIS PAST
EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EASTWARD FROM OHIO.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TONIGHT'S FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO OUR SOUTH BUT OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN ZONES WITH A SOME
LIGHT SNOW. STILL NOT THE ABSOLUTE BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH. TOOK A BLEND OF POPS
FOR THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE THE LIGHT SNOW AND THAT ENDS UP
BEING ROUGHLY FROM JUST NORTH OF KLEB SOUTHEASTWARD TO YORK
COUNTY ME. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO PERIOD WHERE
IT ADVANCES A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. HIGHEST TOTALS SHOULD BE
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NH WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE, PERHAPS
UP TO 4 IN SOME SPOTS.
LOW PRESSURE IS LONE GONE SATURDAY, LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE IN
IT'S WAKE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
OVERVIEW: NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED. MESSY WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH
TRAVEL IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
KEY MESSAGES:
-A STORM IS LIKELY SUN NIGHT INTO MON. AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND THAT COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS,
ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH.
FORECAST DETAILS: SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE EARLY SUN. NBM
GUIDANCE SEEMS RATHER WARM CONSIDERING FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND FRESH SNOWCOVER. I FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE
BLENDING IN SOME 25TH PERCENTILE NBM GUIDANCE ALONG WITH MOS TO
CAPTURE THOSE COOLER TEMPS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS A MESSY WINTER STORM ARRIVING LATE
SUN INTO MON. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
HAS EVOLVED SLIGHTLY. TRENDING TOWARDS MORE UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE.
THIS WOULD TEND TO PROMOTE OR REINFORCE HIGH PRESSURE AND MAKES
ACTIVE COLD AIR DAMMING MORE LIKELY IN MY OPINION THAN THE
PASSIVE/IN-SITU VARIETY. NBM GUIDANCE IS DOING A PASSABLE JOB BY
KEEPING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT OR BELOW
FREEZING THRU MON AFTERNOON. HOWEVER IT IS A KNOWN ISSUE FOR THE
NBM, AND I FEEL THAT TEMPS COULD BE EVEN COLDER THAN WHAT THE
MEAN SHOWS. A BLEND OF THE 25TH AND 50TH PERCENTILES OF THE NBM
MAY BE A FAIR PLACE TO START, GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO THIS SYSTEM.
DESI CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO
RESOLVE TWO MAIN FEATURES. ONE BEING THE SHORTWAVE TROF ITSELF,
AND THE OTHER THE UPPER LOW/TROF OVER NEWFOUNDLAND INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF COMBINED WITH A WEAKER
UPPER LOW DOWNSTREAM ENDS UP FAVORING MORE QPF LOCALLY, AND
MORE WINTRY QPF. THAT ALSO HAPPENS TO BE WHERE 40 PERCENT OF THE
MEMBERS RESIDE IN THE RANGE OF SCENARIOS. SEEING AS THE NBM IS
ALREADY CATEGORICAL POP I SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THAT, BUT
CONSIDERING THE ABOVE DISCUSSION ABOUT TEMPS I WILL MAKE SURE
THAT THERE IS REMAINS WINTRY MIX IN THE FORECAST. IT IS WAY TOO
EARLY TO GET INTO DETAILS REGARDING PTYPE, SO THE PLAN WILL BE
TO INCLUDE BOTH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WHERE ANY CHANGEOVER IS
ANTICIPATED.
BEYOND THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET
INTO A WESTERLY FLOW, COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF TO SNEAK INTO THE FLOW, BUT
OTHERWISE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE TIED TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER
THE MTNS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE MOST EVERYWHERE THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AT KEEN AND KLEB
AND MHT TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. THESE
RESTRICTIONS MAY POTENTIALLY REACH OUT TO KCON AND KPSM AS WELL
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. VFR REMAINS IN THE NORTH AND ACROSS MAINE
LOCATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD ON SUN.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE SUN NIGHT HOWEVER AS THE
NEXT STORM ARRIVES. WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE TOP OF COLDER
SURFACE AIR. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS, PTYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE
ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND TAF SITES. HOWEVER I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIP EVEN AT THE COAST FOR A TIME. MIXED
PRECIP EVENTS ARE ALWAYS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AFFAIR AND THIS
ONE IS NO DIFFERENT. THAT PRECIP THREAT CONTINUES THRU MON
BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS CLEAR OUT BOTH PRECIP AND LOW CIGS. TUE
COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AND I COULD SEE SURFACE GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS IN UPSLOPE FLOW, ESPECIALLY
AROUND HIE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...ANY GALES DIMINISH TO SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST BUT WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY
THIS AFTERNOON, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SEAS ALSO
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING 2-4FT BY SATURDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING EAST THRU SUN.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MON, WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY OUTSIDE THE BAYS. ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE MON, GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS BECOME
POSSIBLE. THIS MAY INCLUDE ALL WATERS. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MAY
LINGER THRU TUE BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. HOWEVER GUSTY
WINDS AND SCAS MAY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO
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