815
FXUS61 KGYX 280505
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1205 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
ICY PRECIPITATION WILL BRING IMPACTS TO TRAVEL TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH ICE ACCUMULATION LOCATIONS SEE, A LIMITED POWER
OUTAGE THREAT IS POSSIBLE AS WINDS GET GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM. IT THEN LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE HOW WE ARE GOING TO
START THE NEW YEAR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
SHORT WAVE RIDGING CRESTS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH RETURN
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS WITH THE RETURN FLOW ALLOWING FOR A SHORT-LIVED
WARMING TREND DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO RAISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
WITH A PLEASANT SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM OVER
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY THICKEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE DAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* MESSY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION TURNING TO FREEZING RAIN, THEN RAIN.
* WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR,
LIMITED POWER OUTAGE THREAT, POTENTIAL HIGHER IN AREAS WITH
HIGHER ICE ACCRETION.
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER OVER THE PAST 36
HOURS, BUT ALL AREAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO HAVE MIXED PRECIPITATION
CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN, HOW LONG UNTIL IT CHANGES OVER TO PURE
RAIN IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SPECIFIC LOCATION. OVERALL STILL
LOOKS LIKE A WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING SET-UP THAT WILL TAKE TIME
FOR THE THE COLD AIR TO BE SCOURED OUT AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NH AND
COASTAL AREAS. BIGGEST IMPACT STILL LOOKS TO BE A SLIPPERY
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND THE LOWER MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL STAY IN EFFECT DUE TO THIS SLIPPERY MORNING
COMMUTE THREAT. AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH
AND/OR WITH ENOUGH DRY SLOTTING LOCALLY THAT QPF IS BELOW 1
INCH. THAT MAKES IT HARD TO GET TO 0.75 INCHES FLAT ICE FOR A
TRUE ICE STORM, BUT I COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR 0.5
INCHES. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST DURING
THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
UPDATE...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. A PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMS IN
IT'S WAKE, ALLOWING FOR BRISK WESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS, THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS COLD AND
MOSTLY DRY WITH PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGHING LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PATTERN OVERVIEW: A POTENT UPPER LOW
PASSES TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AFTER THAT WE ARE
LEFT UNDER A BROAD TROUGH WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE STARTING TO SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WHICH MAY HELP TO FORCE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS, BUT
UNCERTAINTY AT THAT RANGE IS HIGH.
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* GUSTY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MAY POSE AN ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGE THREAT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ICE ACCUMULATION
LOCATIONS SEE.
DETAILS: MONDAY NIGHT: PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS DEPARTURE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM, WE WILL END UP ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF A LOW LEVEL JET
ROUNDING THE BASE OF A POTENT UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH. ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST WINDS OVER OUR HEADS IN THE 35-40
KT RANGE, WITH BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGESTING DECENT ENOUGH MIXING
TO GET GUSTS 25- 35 MPH TO THE SURFACE. THESE HIGHER END GUSTS
LOOK MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH AREAS TO THE NORTH
EVEN MORE ON THE FRINGES OF THE JET AND MORE LIKELY TO SEE THE
LOWER END OF THE RANGE. REGARDLESS, ANY LOCATIONS THAT END UP
WITH DECENT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY SEE AN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGE
THREAT AS BRANCHES FEEL SOME OF THE EXTRA WEIGHT. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT POWER LINES DIRECTLY.
LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS, AND INTO THE LOW TO MID-TEENS NORTH.
TUESDAY AND NEW YEAR'S EVE: GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER 20S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS (UPPER TEENS AND LOW
20S NORTH), BUT WINDCHILLS WILL BE MORE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS (SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH). SKIES
FURTHER CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT BREEZY WINDS WILL KEEP MOST
LOCATIONS FROM DECOUPLING. THE RESULT IS STILL A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AND WINDCHILLS BELOW ZERO FROM THE FOOTHILLS
NORTHWARD. NEW YEAR'S EVE LOOKS MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID- TO UPPER 20S IN THE
SOUTH, AND INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S IN THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, IT STILL LOOKS A BIT BREEZY SO EXPECT FOR IT TO FEEL A
LITTLE COLDER. YOU ARE GOING TO WANT TO BUNDLE UP FOR ANY NEW
YEAR'S EVE ACTIVITIES AS WINDCHILLS LOOK TO END UP IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOW TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH MAY ALSO BRING SOME FESTIVE FLAKES FOR
THE COUNTDOWN.
NEW YEAR'S DAY-SATURDAY: WE START THE NEW YEAR OFF ON THE
CLOUDIER SIDE AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, WITH OUR AREA BEING CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH THE BROADER TROUGH LATE THURSDAY WHICH MAY KICK
US OFF WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
PLACEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW, WHICH UNSURPRISINGLY IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME RANGE, BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. WE MAY GET
INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND WHICH
WOULD GIVE US A BREAK FROM SHOWERS, BUT CONTINUE OUR STRETCH OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH NO
AVIATION IMPACTS. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP SUNDAY NIGHT AS MIXED
PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT AND SPREADS NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS DROPPING CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR TO LIFR. LOW CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM...LOW RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A LOW
CONTINUES TO BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION. VFR
GENERALLY EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY INTERMITTENTLY LOWER RESTRICTIONS AT HIE. A BRIEF
WINDOW OF LOWER RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. VFR EXPECTED AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...CALM ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, BEFORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING SE WINDS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TO THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT AND GUSTY WESTERLY GALES POSSIBLE
BY MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS SLACKEN A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
SCA WINDS LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
5-10FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH 2-5FT SEAS
LIKELY IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
FOR NHZ001>015.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ150>154.
NEAR TERM...DUMONT
SHORT TERM...DUMONT
LONG TERM...PALMER/BARON
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