982
FXUS61 KGYX 282006
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
306 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DRIFT EAST MONDAY BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH PERIODS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
3 PM UPDATE...OPTED TO UPGRADE CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE TO WINTER
STORM WARNINGS AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA SEEING THE HIGHER END ICE ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 0.5",
BUT LESS THEN 0.75". THIS COMBINED WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WILL CREATE AN
ELEVATED POWER OUTAGE THREAT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* A MESSY WINTER STORM WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS GOING
TO BRING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
NOT TOO MUCH HAS CHANGED IN REGARDS TO THINKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE COME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A START
TIME OF AROUND 10PM FOR PRECIPITATION WORKING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST THE WARM NOSE IS GOING TO
BE WELL ESTABLISHED AT THIS POINT, STARTING THINGS OFF AS
FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD,
OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
STILL LOOK COLDER IN INTERIOR MAINE, SO I WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A
MIX AS IT PUSHES INTO THAT AREA. AFTER A VERY COLD NIGHT LAST,
AND TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT, UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKWAYS ARE GOING TO BE PRIMED FOR
ICE ACCUMULATION. ANYONE OUT AND ABOUT IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION AS IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE
SLIPPERY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* A MESSY WINTER STORM WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS GOING
TO BRING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
* GUSTY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT MAY POSE A LIMITED POWER OUTAGE
THREAT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ICE ACCUMULATION LOCATIONS SEE.
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS GOING TO BE A TOUGH ONE FOR MANY.
MODELS ARE BEING FAR TOO GENEROUS WITH SURFACE WARM AIR AND I
HAVE CONTINUED TO BLEND IN COLDER GUIDANCE. IT HAS BEEN NOTED
THAT THIS COLD AIR DAM SETUP IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE, BUT MY GUT
TELLS ME IT WILL HOLD THROUGH THE COMMUTE. THE IMMEDIATE COAST
HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF STARTING TO SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN
EARLY, BUT INTERIOR LOCATIONS LIKELY HOLD ON TO FREEZING RAIN
THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MORNING. THE BIGGEST NOTE IN TRENDS
WITH THE HI-RES MODELS IS THE FACT THAT THEY HAVE BEEN MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF BY
MONDAY EVENING. COMBINED WITH QPF IN THE 0.5-0.75 RANGE, THIS
IS GOING TO HELP KEEP ICE ACCUMULATIONS COMFORTABLY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER, BECAUSE I AM NOT DISCOUNTING THE COLD
AIR DAM AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE CAMS DON'T HAVE THE DRY
SLOTS THEY WERE SHOWING DURING THE DAY MONDAY IN YESTERDAY'S
RUNS, ICE ACCUMULATIONS 0.25" UP TO 0.5" ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION, AND THEREFORE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE
UNCHANGED. I DO BELIEVE HIGHER END AMOUNTS STAY MORE ISOLATED TO
THE TERRAIN.
A POTENT UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH AN
80KT LOW LEVEL JET ROUNDING IT'S BASE. THE CORE OF THIS JET
STAYS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST, BUT ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST 40-50KT
WINDS ON THE FRINGES OF THE JET MOVE OVER OUR AREA. LOOKING AT
BUFKIT PROFILES, LAPSE RATES AREN'T SUPER STEEP, BUT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH ABLE TO REACH
THE SURFACE. WHILE THESE WINDS AREN'T THE MOST IMPRESSIVE, AREAS
THAT DO END UP SEEING SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL HAVE A
LIMITED POWER OUTAGE RISK. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALL
INTO TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, SO WINDCHILLS WILL FEEL MORE
LIKE THE SINGLE DIGITS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
- COLD WITH PERIODIC MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE PASSAGES &
UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL HAVE
FAVORABLE MOMENTUM TRANSFER TAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL JET ~50+KT,
RESULTING IN BLUSTERY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20-35 MPH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
FROM THE FOOTHILLS SOUTH, AND NEGATIVE VALUES FURTHER NORTHWARD.
FORTUNATELY WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PLUMMET.
CYCLONIC NW FLOW PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS THE AREA IS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL SUPPORT REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR. EACH SHORTWAVE
& REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSH WILL BRING SOME SNOW CHANCES,
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE COMING
TOGETHER ON A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH LATE WED-THU
WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO ALL AREAS. HOWEVER, THE
SOURCE REGION BEING DRY WILL LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A COLD STRETCH WITH HIGH
HEATING DEGREE DAYS. THE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED BY THE WEEKEND, WITH AT LEAST SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURE. LIGHT SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY
WITH THE CONTINUED SHORTWAVE CROSSINGS THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
THINGS GO DOWN HILL QUICKLY TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 03Z OVERSPREADING NEW HAMPSHIRE
TERMINALS BY 06Z AND SOUTHERN MAINE TERMINALS BY 09Z. MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WELL BRINGING PERIODS OF
IFR VISIBILITIES. WIDESPREAD IFR IS LIKELY MONDAY AS CEILINGS
LOWER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS
OFF. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
LONG TERM...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CIGS WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY WITH
PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY,
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT. VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT,
BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP, WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25KTS,
QUICKLY AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY
WITH GUSTS RAMPING UP TO GALE FORCE. DURING THIS TIME SEAS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-8 FT.
LONG TERM...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY EVENING WITH STRONG NW WINDS DEVELOPING BRINGING A PERIOD
OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS MOST WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE
PROGGED TO BUILD UP TO 6- 10 FT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR NHZ001-002-010>015.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR NHZ003>009.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-
152-154.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ151-153.
NEAR/SHORT TERM...BARON
LONG TERM...JAMISON
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