654
FXUS61 KGYX 291421
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
921 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING ICY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING, BRINGING WITH IT BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK REMAINS COLD
WITH A POSSIBLE ARCTIC FRONT TO START THE NEW YEAR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
920 AM UPDATE...AIR AND ROAD TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND
INLAND MIDCOAST HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ALLOWING FOR A CHANGE
OVER TO PLAIN RAIN AND IMPROVING ROAD CONDITIONS. THEREFORE,
HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES:
* A MESSY WINTER STORM WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS GOING
TO BRING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING
COMMUTE.
WARM FRONT PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FREEZING RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. SLEET AND SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
KENNEBEC RIVER VALLEY AT DAYBREAK. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW
QUICKLY THE FREEZING LINE PUSHES INLAND OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
MOST LIKELY THE ONLY AREA THAT WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE THE NH SEACOAST AND THE NECKS OF COASTAL
MAINE. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE WITH COLD ROADS AND FREEZING RAIN. THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
WILL HOLD STRONG ACROSS CENTRAL NH AND INTO WESTERN MAINE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THIS WILL LEAD TO ICE ACCRETION APPROACHING
.5" IN SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL NH INTO THE SACO RIVER VALLEY IF
THE QPF FORECASTS VERIFIES CLOSE TO AN INCH. ENOUGH ICE FOR SOME
BRANCHES TO SNAP IN ITSELF. THE BIGGEST IMPACT THOUGH WILL BE
THE WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING. THAT IS THE BIG FORECAST
CHALLENGE QUESTION, WILL THESE AREAS WARM ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING
THIS AFTERNOON TO SHED SOME OF THE ICE OR NOT? CURRENTLY
TEMPERATURES ARE JUST BARELY ABOVE FREEZING IN SOME AREAS UNDER
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. FURTHER
TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH, TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM WILL INTO THE 30S AND EVEN SOME LOW 40S, SO ANY ICE
WILL MELT BY THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE, THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR
IMPACTS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE POPULATION AREA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR,
LIMITED POWER OUTAGE THREAT, ELEVATED POWER OUTAGE THREAT IN
AREAS THAT HAVE ICE BONDED TO TREE LIMBS.
A POTENT UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT, WITH AN 80KT
LOW LEVEL JET ROUNDING IT'S BASE. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER NORTHERN MAINE WILL HELP
ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS. WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
IN THE TERRAIN AREAS. WHILE THESE WINDS AREN'T THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE, AREAS THAT DO END UP SEEING HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL HAVE AN ELEVATED POWER OUTAGE RISK AS ICE LOADED LIMBS
SNAP. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALL INTO TEENS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, SO WINDCHILLS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S, BRINGING WINDCHILL VALUES INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AND COLDER
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SOME WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE CONNECTS WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL JET OVER THE GULF
OF MAINE. HOWEVER, MOST OF THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO OCCUR JUST
AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES THE AREA AND SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO
BE LESS THAN AN INCH IN MOST PLACES.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN AT
THE COAST FIRST, BEFORE PUSHING INLAND. CEILINGS INCREASE
TONIGHT AS GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA. VFR WITH
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, THOUGH UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY INTERMITTENTLY LOWER RESTRICTIONS AT HIE. A
BRIEF WINDOW OF LOWER RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA IS LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. VFR
EXPECTED AFTER THURSDAY MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH GALE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS.
LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS SLACKEN A LITTLE DURING THE DAY, WITH SCA WINDS
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 5-10FT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH 2-5FT SEAS LIKELY BY
FRIDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ007>009-012>014-018>021-033.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001-
002-010>013-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ003>009.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ151-153.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BARON/DUMONT/SCHROETER
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JAMISON/PALMER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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