810
FXUS61 KGYX 301845
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
145 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK REMAINS COLD WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT
BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO KICK OFF THE NEW
YEAR. COLD TEMPERATURES AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LASTS
INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON POSE AN ELEVATED POWER OUTAGE
RISK FOR AREAS WHERE TREES HAVE, OR WERE DAMAGED BY, ICE AND
SNOW LOAD.
UNBLOCKED FLOW OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS IS ALLOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO REACH INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF INTO THE EVENING
AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT AND BRINGS THE UPSLOPE SHOWERS
TO AN END. MANY STATIONS ARE STILL OBSERVING FREQUENT GUSTS
25-35 MPH, SO LEFT WIND ADVISORIES IN PLACE TO COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE POWER OUTAGE THREAT.
CLOUDS CLEAR SOME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS STAY
BREEZY ENOUGH TO AVOID DECOUPLING. STILL, THIS FRESH AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID- TO LOW
TEENS FROM THE FOOTHILLS SOUTH. IN THE FOOTHILLS AND POINTS
NORTH, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO ZERO.
REGARDLESS, BITTERLY COLD WINDCHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL BELOW
ZERO JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW MAY MAKE TRAVEL SLICK AROUND THE TIME
OF NEW YEAR'S EVE FESTIVITIES.
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY, SO WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
CLOUDS INCREASING AS THE DAY GOES ON. AT THE SURFACE WE STAY
DRY, WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AIDING HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE MID- TO UPPER 20S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. TO THE
NORTH, TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S. WINDS
LOOK BREEZY DURING THE PEAK MIXING HOURS SO IT WILL LIKELY FEEL
10-15 DEGREES COOLER.
NEW YEAR'S EVE FESTIVITIES MAY INCLUDE SOME SNOW FLAKES AS A
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES
THE AREA. THE TIMING LOOKS LIKE THE COUNTDOWN TO THE NEW YEAR
MAY FEATURE LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING AS
FESTIVITIES WRAP UP. SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE LIFT THROUGH THE DGZ,
BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW SATURATED THE COLUMN WILL BE. MODELS
ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE COAST WHICH WOULD ADD AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND THUSLY A
MOISTURE FEED. FOR THIS REASON, COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE THE
BEST SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT ON THE ORDER OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
THROUGH SUN RISE. INTERIOR LOCATIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE A
HALF INCH OR LESS, WITH HIGHER TERRAIN SEEING LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS AS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT RETURNS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE. THIS LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY MAKE FOR SOME
SLIPPERY TRAVEL AS YOU HEAD HOME FROM YOUR HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* QUICK SYSTEM CONTINUES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY RESULTING IN
LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
FALLING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
COAST.
DETAILS:
DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE STRENGTHENING AND
CONSOLIDATING THROUGH THE GULF BEFORE PUSHING NE AT STRENGTH.
THUS WHILE MOST OF THE EXPECTED IMPACTS ARE LIGHT, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR OVERPERFORMANCE OF QPF (AND SNOW) TOWARDS CENTRAL
ME AND THE MIDCOAST. FOR NOW, CARRY TOTALS THROUGH THURS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES, WITH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING AROUND
ONE INCH.
INCREASED WINDS THURSDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NW
925MB WINDS INCREASE W/ LOW PUSHING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK/NOVA
SCOTIA. THESE USHER IN COOLER TEMPS, WHERE HIGHS MAY BE MET IN
THE MORNING AND FALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO AS
WINDS SLOWLY LIGHTEN. THE COAST AND INTERIOR COULD SEE WINDS
FALL OFF EARLIER, RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FOR LATE NIGHT. BROUGHT LOWS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES
FOR THIS REGION, WHERE A SPARE -10 CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR IDEAL
LOCATIONS.
QUIET WEATHER SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE
COOL, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL AND DAILY NW
BREEZE THAT KEEPS WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -10 AND 10.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP COULD ARRIVE EARLY TO
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK IN THE FORM OF A ROBUST CLIPPER, BUT THERE
REMAINS A LOT OF SOLUTIONS IN GUIDANCE. THIS IS MAINLY IN
PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL CONUS
AND NORTH FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS 20-
25 KTS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS, BUT VISIBILITY
AND SKY CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BRING ABOUT MVFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITIES.
LONG TERM...MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME IFR WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AS SN TAPERS WEST TO EAST. IFR VIS LIKELY IN
ELEVATED SN RATES FOR COASTAL TERMINALS THURS AM. VFR IS
EXPECTED BY SUNSET FOR MOST TERMINALS, WITH SOME LIGHT SN
CONTINUING FOR HIE AND US/CAN BORDER TERMINALS. GUSTY NW WINDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON 20 TO 25 KTS, SOME TO 30 KT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT MVFR CEILINGS
MAY BE INTERMITTENT FOR HIE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WESTERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO BECOME LESS FREQUENT.
AFTERWARD SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 25 KTS LAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCAS ARE
LIKELY GOING TO HAVE TO REMAIN UP THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WAVE HEIGHTS TAKE A LITTLE BIT LONGER
TO FALL BELOW 5FT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH MORE MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY IN
THE SLIGHTLY COLDER WATERS OF PENOBSCOT BAY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...SCA LIKELY NEEDED THURSDAY AS WINDS REMAIN DUE TO
STRENGTHENING LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. SOME GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES IN
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY NOT GET MORE THAN 4 FT AS
DIRECTION REMAINS OFFSHORE FOR MUCH OF THE 2ND HALF OF EVENT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY KEEP SCA CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS/HARBORS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012-
013-018-019-023-024-033.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151.
NEAR/SHORT TERM...BARON
LONG TERM...CORNWELL
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