987
FXUS61 KGYX 311852
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
152 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY
DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE PATTERN LOOKING TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN
THEREAFTER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR
MAY MAKE FOR SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL HEADING HOME FROM NEW YEAR'S
EVE FESTIVITIES.
* BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR SOUTHERN MAINE IN THE EARLY
HOURS OF THURSDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE RIDES A STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOME LIGHT
FLAKES MAY BE FALLING DURING THE COUNTDOWN TO THE NEW YEAR AS A
WARM FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THE
SNOW WON'T REALLY START ACCUMULATING UNTIL JUST AFTERWARD. THIS
MAY CREATE SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL FOR THOSE HEADING BACK FROM NEW
YEAR'S FESTIVITIES. FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SNOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH SUN RISE, AMOUNTING TO A HALF INCH TO
AN INCH, BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A GOOD SIGNAL FOR SOME
COASTAL ENHANCEMENT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. COASTAL AREAS LOOK TO SEE A MORE MODERATE SNOWFALL
HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY WITH AMOUNTS
MORE ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES THROUGH SUNRISE. IT IS ALSO
WORTH NOTING THAT SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN
SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR SOUTHERN MAINE TOWARD SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW AND POTENTIALLY SLIPPERY TRAVEL
CONTINUES IN SOME AREAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT AN INVERTED TROUGH FORMING
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE SIGNAL IS MUCH WEAKER THAN LAST TIME.
STILL, THE DEEPENING LOW WILL PROVIDE COASTAL ENHANCEMENT IN
THE FORM OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW, SO
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE MIDCOAST
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA. SNOW TAPERS OFF AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY EVENING. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE A WIDESPREAD 1-3
INCHES LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET, WITH AMOUNTS ON THE MIDCOAST
PILING UP MORE IN THE 4-6 INCH RANGE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. LOCATIONS AROUND PENOBSCOT BAY
AND ON THE ISLANDS STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
WHERE THAT HEAVIER MOISTURE AXIS IS GOING TO SET-UP.
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS CALM OVERNIGHT LEADING TO EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT. I WENT AHEAD AND BLENDED IN
SOME COOLER GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND ENDED UP WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE INTERIOR AND FOOTHILLS ARE
GOING TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE -5F TO 0F RANGE, AND THE NORTH GETS
AS LOW AS -5F TO -10F.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
OVERVIEW: COLD BUT QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. A QUICK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND PRESERVING COLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MODERATING TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY WITH
ONE OR TWO DISTURBANCES TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION.
DETAILS: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH NH AND SOUTHERN ME WILL
WIDEN AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT NORTH FRIDAY. WEST WINDS
WILL STILL BE PRESENT THOUGH, WITH SOME GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH.
INTO THE WEEKEND, GUSTS BECOME MORE DIURNAL WITH DAYTIME MIXING.
UNCHANGING WEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL AND BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT MOISTURE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT OTHERWISE
REPEAT DOWNSLOPE DRYING THROUGH THE GREENS AND WHITES SHOULD
KEEP THE INTERIOR AND COAST DRY UNTIL A QUICK CLIPPER SAT NIGHT.
PACE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BOTH BE PREVENTATIVE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION AS THE QUICK CLIPPER PASSES. MEAN QPF
IS JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER AND MID
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE OF SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT, SO
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STREAMERS OF ENHANCED QPF IN VICINITY OF
BETTER CONVERGENCE. BUT AT THIS TIME IT MAY BE TOO LITTLE TOO
LATE AS THE DISTURBANCE KEEPS MOVING EAST WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL
SUPPORT.
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE FOR A FOLLOW UP CLIPPER
MON NIGHT INTO TUES, AND THIS IS SHOWN IN NBM POPS WITH A RATHER
DRAWN-OUT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES, THINK THERE WILL BE BETTER TEMPORAL DEFINITION WITH
THE EVENT. UNTIL THEN, GFS SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DRY ANOTHER CLIPPER
CUTTING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WHERE CANADIAN AND EURO
SOLUTIONS HANG ONTO THE MOISTURE INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY WIND
UP BEING ANOTHER NUISANCE SNOW SIMILAR TO SAT NIGHT AS NOT
SIGNIFICANT JETS POPULATE THE REGION LEADING TO LESSER NET LIFT
FOR NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, BEFORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL BRING ABOUT IFR RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT.
FOR MOST TERMINALS A RETURN TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY, BUT FURTHER EAST TERMINALS LIKE RKD AND AUG MAY HOLD
ONTO RESTRICTIONS CLOSER TO 18Z. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...WEST WINDS CONTINUE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT FRIDAY
AND LIGHTER INTO THE WEEKEND. MVFR CEILINGS HANG ON IN NORTHERN
NH AND THE US/CAN BORDER, MAINLY N AND NW OF THE WHITES. LIGHT
SN MAY ACCOMPANY THESE LOWER CEILINGS, BUT UNSURE ON EXACT VIS
IMPACT AT THIS TIME FRI NIGHT. SERIES OF QUICK CLIPPER SYSTEMS
COULD BRING LOWERED CEILINGS AND VIS TO A WIDER REGION SAT
NIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF
BREAK OVERNIGHT. A FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING BRINGING A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS AND BY THE
AFTERNOON, GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS. GALES LAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, BUT SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS WELL.
LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WEST WIND REGIME AND COOL AIR MASS CONTINUES. OTHER THAN TWO
QUICK CLIPPER SYSTEMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT, NO
LARGE PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
MEZ022-025>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
152-154.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ150>152-154.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ150>154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ153.
NEAR/SHORT TERM...BARON
LONG TERM...CORNWELL
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