914
FXUS61 KGYX 201835
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
135 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED ON THE MIDCOAST.
STILL, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FALL
OUTSIDE OF PEAK TRAVEL TIMES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WIND CHILLS BELOW 0 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AS WE GET OUR FIRST ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR.
2. LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AND SNOW IS FORECAST TO END BEFORE THE THURSDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.
3. COLDEST STRETCH OF THE SEASON IS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY WARRANT COLD WEATHER HEADLINES. LOW TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT LIKELY DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA WITH -20F OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITHIN NORTHERN
VALLEYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
RADAR THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS REACHING
INTO CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE AS WELL AS UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. CAMS HAVE BEEN HANDLING
THE STREAMERS WELL AND I HAVE CONTINUED TO BLEND THESE INTO THE
FORECAST, SUGGESTING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE HERE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. EVEN LIGHTER SNOW MAY ALSO BE SEEN IN THE
FOOTHILLS DURING THIS TIME AS HIGH FROUDE NUMBERS ARE ALLOWING
SOME OF THE UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO SPILL OVER.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, CLEARING SKIES
AND CALMING WINDS. HAVE CONTINUED TO BLEND IN SOME COOLER MOS
GUIDANCE, AS THE NBM HAS STARTED TO CATCH ON, BUT ISN'T QUITE
GRASPING THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
HOLDING STEADY WITH THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS DROPPING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INTO THE -20 TO -22C RANGE WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD FOR
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW 0 IN
THE NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FOR THE SOUTH. WIND CHILL WILL
MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE -10 TO -15F IN THE NORTH AND SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARM WEDNESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE MID- TO UPPER 20S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO
UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S TO THE NORTH. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A
CLIPPER TO MOVE IN LATE WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION, BUT MODEL TIMING HAS BEEN
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THIS BETWEEN THE WEDNESDAY
EVENING COMMUTE AND THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE SO IMPACT TO
TRAVEL SHOULD BE LOW. QPF LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
MIDCOAST WHICH ENDS UP IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID AND
LOW LEVEL JET AND MAY SQUEEZE OUT CLOSER TO 0.15". BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP DGZ, SO WITH THIS FAVORABLE LIFT
AND COLD TEMPERATURES BUMPING SNOW RATIOS HIGHER THAN 10:1 MUCH
OF THE AREA RECEIVING MEASURABLE SNOW IS IN THE CARDS. AREAS OF
1-2" ARE PROBABLY GOING TO BE CONFINED MORE TO HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN VALLEYS, WITH THE MIDCOAST SEEING THE BEST CHANCE
OF 2-4".
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
AT THE END OF THE WEEK, A NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WEAK POLAR VORTEX ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE STRONGEST OF THIS COLD ALOFT WILL GYRATE
AROUND EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEK AND MAKE A SOUTHERLY SWING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE COLD SNAP, RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
NOT LIKELY DUE TO A NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE REGION. THESE FACTORS SHOULD KEEP AIR
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING FURTHER OVERNIGHT, BUT ANY AMOUNT OF WIND
OVER THIS DEEP COLD AIRMASS COULD CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS.
THE MOST DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE-DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ALONG THE COAST, WITH TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE COLD
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH AN 8-12MPH BREEZE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE AIR TEMPERATURE AND WINDS, MOST PEOPLE CAN
EXPECT TO SEE WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN AT LEAST -10F, AND POTENTIALLY
AS COLD AS -40F IN THE MOUNTAINS. WIND CHILLS DO IMPROVE THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY, BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ALL DAY
ON SATURDAY AND THEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE COLD MAY
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, THROUGH WIND
CHILLS LOOK TO SLOWLY WARM (TO MAYBE WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER SINGLE-
DIGITS OR SO) THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA,
BUT SKIES CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS TREND TOWARD
MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WIDESPREAD IFR IN LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT, WITH A TREND TOWARD MVFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN
END NEAR DAY BREAK THURSDAY.
THURSDAY: LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE
WIDESPREAD VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WIDESPREAD VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE AT HIE.
FRIDAY: WIDESPREAD VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE AT HIE.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WIDESPREAD VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE AT HIE.
SATURDAY: VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINALS.
SUNDAY: AM VFR, WITH LOWER RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEAS OF 5-8FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE AT LEAST TO SCA LEVELS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ151-153.
BARON/PALMER
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