446
FXUS61 KGYX 211142
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
642 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A ARCTIC BLAST THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING DANGEROUSLY COLD WINDCHILL AND AIR TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. VERY COLD MORNING THIS MORNING WITH WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR
ZERO MANY AREAS, TO WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS.
2. LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A
PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHT AND SNOW IS FORECAST TO END BEFORE THE THURSDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT THURSDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE.
3. ARCTIC BLAST WILL BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR IS LOOKING
LIKELY WITH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY WILL BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING.
FROSTBITE ONSET WILL OCCUR QUICKLY FOR THOSE NOT DRESSED
PROPERLY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TODAY AS WINDS
GO SOUTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER, EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD
WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND OTHER OUTLYING AREAS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
ZERO AROUND SUNRISE. BUNDLE UP.
HIGHS WILL "REBOUND" TODAY, WITH THEM GETTING CLOSE TO 30 AT THE
COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT BRINGING A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME TO OUR FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW
EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WEST, THEN EASTWARD FROM THERE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. IT'S A QUICK-HITTING SYSTEM THAT SHOULD BE
GONE BY 12Z THURSDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP DGZ,
SO WITH THIS FAVORABLE LIFT AND COLD TEMPERATURES BUMPING SNOW
RATIOS HIGHER THAN 10:1 MUCH OF THE AREA RECEIVING MEASURABLE
SNOW IS IN THE CARDS. LOOKS LIKE 1-2" FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 2-4" ON THE MIDCOAST WITH SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.
SOME LEFTOVER SLIPPERY TRAVEL POSSIBLE FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW SQUALLS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NH.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...AT THE END OF THE WEEK, A NEGATIVE
PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WEAK
POLAR VORTEX ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, OPENING US UP FOR
AN INVASION OF ARCTIC AIR. THE STRONGEST OF THIS AIRMASS WILL
GYRATE AROUND EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEK AND MAKE A SOUTHERLY
SWING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND BY THE WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY LOCKED IN ALREADY FOR AN
ANOMOUSLY COLD AIRMASS THIS WEEKEND ON THE ORDER OF THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OF NORMAL AT 700MB TEMPS, AS A PIECE OF THE POLAR
VORTEX MOVES OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. CEILINGS MAY TREND TOWARD MVFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AT KLEB AND KHIE. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR IN LIGHT
SNOW EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT, WITH A
TREND TOWARD MVFR OR VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END NEAR DAY BREAK
THURSDAY. LLWS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN NH
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE
WIDESPREAD VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WIDESPREAD VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE AT HIE.
FRIDAY: WIDESPREAD VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE AT HIE.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WIDESPREAD VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE AT HIE.
SATURDAY: VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINALS.
SUNDAY: LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF TERMINALS BY PM
MONDAY: MVFR BECOMING VFR AS POTENTIAL LIGHTS SNOW PULLS AWAY.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. LOW-END
GALES POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH END SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS STAY ELEVATED ON FRIDAY
AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. GALES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY AND SEA SMOKE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
DISCUSSION...COMBS/EKSTER/DUMONT
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