361
FXUS61 KGYX 211755
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1255 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REGARDING TONIGHT MINOR SNOW EVENT.
STILL GENERALLY EXPECTING A COATING TO 2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE MIDCOAST.
EXTREME COLD WATCHES WERE ISSUED ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THIS WEEKEND'S WINTER SYSTEM
NORTHWARD, INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD
AS MODELS ARE TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH A SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING
PLOWABLE SNOW TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A
PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT
AND SNOW IS FORECAST TO END BEFORE THE THURSDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONT THURSDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE.
2. ARCTIC BLAST WILL BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR IS
LOOKING LIKELY WITH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY WILL BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING. FROSTBITE ONSET WILL OCCUR QUICKLY FOR THOSE NOT
DRESSED PROPERLY.
3. A LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. HIGHER TOTALS LOOK
MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHERN NH, THOUGH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION:
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN REGARDS TO THE LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT
EXPECTED TONIGHT. SNOW BEGINS TO BREAKOUT IN WESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE IN THE 6 TO 7PM HOUR, CONTINUING TO SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BATTLING THE DRY
ARCTIC AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, SO QPF REMAINS
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT MUCH OF THE AREA MAY SEE SNOW COMING TO AN END WITH
AMOUNTS IN THE RANGE OF A COATING TO AN INCH (1-2 INCHES IN
NORTHERN VALLEYS). THE COASTAL PLAIN SEES SNOW LONGER AND GETS A
LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE FROM THE OCEAN, SO PORTSMOUTH UP
THROUGH BRUNSWICK HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF ENDING UP IN THE 1-2"
RANGE BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF IN THE 2AM HOUR. LASTLY, THE MIDCOAST
SEES SNOW LAST THROUGH 4AM AND THUSLY SEES THE BEST CHANCE TO
END UP IN THE 2-4" RANGE BEFORE IT'S ALL SAID AND DONE. THE
ISLANDS LIKELY END UP ON THE LOWER END OF THIS RANGE, AS THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES THEM ABOVE FREEZING AND SWITCHES THE
SNOW TO RAIN FOR THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. ALL THIS OCCURING BEFORE
THE BULK OF THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE SHOULD KEEP TRAVEL
IMPACTS MINIMAL, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LIGHT AMOUNTS.
THE MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER MAY ACTUALLY COME DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS GOING TO CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE MAKING THURSDAY A
VERY WARM DAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE ARE GOING TO BE DEALING WITH
LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
TO THE NORTH. ALOFT THE COLD AIR IS GOING TO START MOVING IN AND
THIS TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IS GOING TO CREATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE HREF MODELS A CLEAR THETA-E RIDGE OFFSHORE
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVER OUR AREA
AND CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW SQUALLS. BASED ON
THIS ANYWHERE COULD SEE A SQUALL DEVELOP AS THE SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER IS ABOVE 1 ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND INTO THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS HAS THE GREATEST
CHANCE SUPPORTED BY A SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER UPWARDS OF 4. CAPE
IS LESS IMPORTANT THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT THE HREF SUGGESTS
50-60 J/KG DEVELOP IN THE NORTH WHICH WOULD FURTHER SUPPORT THE
SIGNAL UP THERE. THE 12Z CAMS CURRENTLY SUGGEST THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON IS THE WINDOW FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO OCCUR, SO TIMING WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS
THESE HEAVY SHOWERS OR SQUALLS COULD BE AROUND FOR THE THURSDAY
EVENING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION:
AT THE END OF THE WEEK, A NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WEAK POLAR VORTEX ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE STRONGEST OF THIS COLD ALOFT WILL GYRATE
AROUND EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEK AND MAKE A SOUTHERLY SWING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY
TO BE DANGEROUSLY COLD, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND NORTHWESTERN MAINE.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION:
A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD, WHILE ARCTIC AIR IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. MODELS ARE IN
SOLID AGREEMENT FOR AT LEAST 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL DOES REMAIN FOR TOTALS GREATER
THAN 6 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN NH. ANY DEVIATION FROM HERE NORTH
OR SOUTH COULD HAVE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON TREND TOWARD MVFR
THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW BREAKS OUT WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS RATES ARE BRIEFLY MODERATE.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM IFR TO MVFR AFTER 06Z THURSDAY
AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO VFR AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. WINDS GUSTS PICK
UP NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MOST TERMINALS SEEING
GUSTS 20-25KTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR PREVAILS, BUT BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS MAY IMPACT SOME TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THESE WOULD BRING ABOUT QUICK WIND CHANGES
AND IFR VISIBILITIES.
FRIDAY: WIDESPREAD VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE AT HIE.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WIDESPREAD VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE AT HIE.
SATURDAY: VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINALS.
SUNDAY: LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF TERMINALS BY PM
MONDAY: MVFR BECOMING VFR AS SNOW PULLS AWAY.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS
POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS AS A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.
WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY WITH A SECONDARY FRONT CROSSING THURSDAY
LEADING TO POTENTIAL GALES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
(FRIDAY - ONWARDS) GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SLACKEN TO SCA
LEVELS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTHERLIES. SCA WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS OF
5-8FT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, LOWERING TO 2-4FT BY
SUNDAY MORNING.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR NHZ001>003-005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ154.
DISCUSSION...BARON/PALMER
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