534
FXUS61 KGYX 220559
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1259 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE NEAR/SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST (THURSDAY THOUGH FRIDAY). ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE
FINISHED BY THE MORNING COMMUTE TODAY. WE'LL GET A REPRIEVE
FROM THE COLD AIR TOO AS MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS GET TO 35 TO 40F.
INCREASED SNOW CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NORTH TREND IN LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS MAY MAKE FOR LOCAL SLIPPERY CONDITIONS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NH EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ME.
2. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
LAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. IT WILL STILL FEEL BELOW ZERO
COME SUNDAY MORNING DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS. FROSTBITE AND
HYPOTHERMIA CAN ONSET QUICKLY AT THESE TEMPERATURES FOR ANYONE
WITH EXPOSED SKIN OR INADEQUATE SHELTER.
3. LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE MOST
LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH ALL SNOW
EXPECTED. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE FORECAST AND PLAN FOR SLICK
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION:
DESPITE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY, A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY, SPREADING SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW
SQUALLS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES BY ABOUT NOON, SPREADING EASTWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SLIPPERY SPOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY WANE DURING THIS EVENING.
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION:
BROAD AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
SQUARELY DOWNSTREAM OF A FRIGID AIRMASS ADVECTING ACROSS
CONTINENTAL CANADA INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DECREASING, WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TIGHTENS.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST AREA. OF
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE NORTHERN NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS
WHERE FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS CHILLS PLUMMET TO 30 TO 40 BELOW ZERO.
HERE, FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN AS LITTLE AS 10 MINUTES FOR EXPOSED
SKIN. ELSEWHERE, VALUES FALL TO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO
WHEN FACTORING IN WIND. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THESE COLD CONDITIONS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING, WIND CHILL VALUES REMAIN BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE DAYTIME SATURDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ARE LIKELY FOR THE AREA.
WINDS LIGHTEN AS THE DAY GOES ON AND PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES,
BUT THE COLD AIR MASS SETTLES NEARBY SATURDAY NIGHT. WHAT WE
LOSE IN WINDS IN PROXIMITY TO THE HIGH, WE GAIN IN POTENTIAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR CLOUD-FREE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. RIGHT
NOW, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE MAY
BE, BUT DO EXPECT A CONSECUTIVE NIGHT OF TEMPERATURES BELOW
ZERO FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION:
RECENT GUIDANCE TREND HAS TO BRING A QUICK BUT STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY BEFORE CONSOLIDATING
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS TRACK,
WHICH HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD QUICKLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS,
PRESENTS A SNOWY OUTCOME FOR THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AMID A COLD AIR MASS, AN ALL SNOW OUTCOME IS FAIRLY CERTAIN
BARRING ANY CONTINUED NORTHWARD SHIFTS. WILL BE MONITORING
FORCING, HOW LONG PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT, AND ANY ADDITIONAL
SHIFTS IN THE LOW'S TRACK TO HONE IN ON FORECAST TOTALS. AT THIS
RANGE, SWINGS AND SHIFTS ARE NOT UNCOMMON.
WILL WANT TO WATCH TIMING OF SHARP TROUGH ARRIVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST SUNDAY EVENING. THIS COULD ORIENT MID LEVEL JET COUPLING
TO FURTHER DEEPEN THE PARENT LOW AS JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH. WITH A LOT OF STRONG FEATURES (HIGH AND LOW) TO
MATERIALIZE OVER THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, SHIFTS IN
THOUGHTS ARE LIKELY, BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A LIKELY OUTCOME.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 12Z TODAY
IF NOT WELL BEFORE. WINDS GUSTS PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MOST TERMINALS SEEING GUSTS 20-25KTS. VFR LARGELY
PREVAILS AFTER 12Z TODAY, BUT BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS OR
SQUALLS MAY IMPACT SOME TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. EVENING. THESE WOULD BRING ABOUT QUICK WIND CHANGES
AND IFR VISIBILITIES.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: WIDESPREAD VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE AT HIE. A FEW
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS MAY BRING BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WIDESPREAD VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE AT HIE.
WNW GUSTS 15 TO 25 KT.
SATURDAY: VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINALS. WNW GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: SN LIKELY, MVFR TO IFR, POTENTIAL LIFR
VIS AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
MONDAY: IFR/MVFR IN SN.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAYS THROUGH FRIDAY, AND
WESTERLY GALES ARE LIKELY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AM. WINDS SLACKEN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHERLIES INTO SUNDAY. SCA
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS OF 5-8FT EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, LOWERING TO 2-4FT BY SUNDAY MORNING.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR NHZ001>003-005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-
152.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-153-154.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ154.
DISCUSSION...EKSTER/CORNWELL
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